Heroes: I Just Don’t Know What To Do… 

 

‘And now that we’re through 

I just don’t know what to do’ 

 
The latest date Sunak can delay the election to, 24th January 2025. Meaning he has 17-months to create a workable strategy and start delivering on it. 

I fully expect the campaign to be the most unpleasant in our history, based on negative politics. Labour don’t need to rubbish the Tories, their record and the mess they have delivered is self-evident. Supported by the media it will be a chorus of Labour only ‘tax and spend’, the country will be overrun with immigrants, and we will have one-legged black trans-lesbian teachers, etc., etc..  

Immigration will be a key focus, although, to date, the governments’ efforts to deal with this have been a combination of nasty, illegal, and ineffective. Last week their latest attempt totally unravelled. 

It started with the immigration minister Robert Jenrick claiming that Labour was using ‘every trick and tactic to delay and prevent us from removing people’. He compounded this saying, Labour were putting ‘two fingers up to the law-abiding majority who suffer from illegal migration‘. 

The first 15 victims boarded the ‘Bibby Stockholm’, whilst a further 20 challenged the decision as human rights groups branded the scheme ‘inhumane‘. 

The justice secretary, Alex Chalk, went as far as stating he would be comfortable with severe punishment for immigration lawyers after the government said they could face life in jail.  

The government then announced a deal with Turkey to focus on ‘disrupting‘ people-smuggling gangs, which saw them accused of seeking distractions from their ‘disastrous failure‘ on asylum policy. It emerged that that the Home Office has diverted millions from the official development assistance budget to Turkish border forces. 

Meanwhile, illegal immigration hit a daily record when a further 756 migrants arrived on 14-boats. Further adding to the record asylum backlog; 173,000 people are waiting for an initial decision on their claim. 

The barge strategy finally unravelled as the Bibby Stockholm was evacuated amid fears of Legionella in the on-board water system. Former Brexit Secretary David Davis describes the turn of events as ‘startling incompetence‘. Home Office admits that Legionella was detected on Monday – the day when the first arrivals landed. 
 

‘The final act of a disastrous week was the dreadful news that another boat has capsized attempting to cross the Channel, with at least six people drowned’

 
The final act of a disastrous week was the dreadful news that another boat has capsized attempting to cross the Channel, with at least six people drowned. 

The focus on the boats serves only to highlight how out-of-touch the Tories are, and how they focus on a small, bigoted cross-section of the electorate. This is no better than Nero fiddling whilst Rome burnt. 

The average Briton, I.E., the majority they ignore, are likely to be no better off in 2026 than they were in 2008. The poorest fifth are more than 20% poorer than their French and German counterparts. 

Economic growth is, at best, sluggish, and there has been an unprecedented slowdown in the nation’s productivity levels. Hospital waiting lists are at record highs, housing is in crisis with record numbers renting and paying record high rents, whilst homeowners suffer ever higher mortgage repayments. Privatised infrastructure sector isn’t fit for purpose and benefits only their shareholders. 

However, we shouldn’t overlook the governments success in dealing with Farage’s banking crisis! 

Rather than solving the issues that effect the majority of the electorate Sunak has turned to the tried and tested racism immigration problems. Illegal immigration was  caused by the government closing down safe and legal routes, which in true Fascist style enables the Tories to use the poor victims trying to reach our shores, to deflect public anger away from their multiple failures. 

Cameron started this, claiming that immigration was a ‘constant drain‘ on public services. His home secretary, Theresa May, moulded her political career around scapegoating migrants, falsely claiming she couldn’t deport one ‘illegal migrant‘ because he owned a cat, and reiterating Cameron’s claims about undue pressure on public services.  

Given that both Cameron and May slashed public services and failed to regenerate housebuilding, the migrants became a convenient scapegoat. 

Using migrants in this way is a traditional Fascist tactic. The Tories use of this succeeded to such an extent that, by 2015, curbing immigration was a top priority for 44% of voters, and was key to ‘leave’s’ success in the 2016 Brexit referendum.  

Along with delivering nothing to curb immigration, Brexit has served only to further reducing growth and living standards, leaving 63% of Britons to conclude Brexit was more of a failure than a success, with just 12% suggesting the opposite. I can’t improve upon this quote: ‘it is politicians seeking to blame foreigners and minorities for society’s ills who pose the greatest danger to a nation.’ 
 

‘it is politicians seeking to blame foreigners and minorities for society’s ills who pose the greatest danger to a nation.’ 

 
The 1930’s aside, more recently we have seen Trump rise to power, in part, by demonising Muslims.  Hungary and Poland have become autocracies, dominated by political parties who based their support on demonising migrants. 

As the Trump experiment in the US proves, far-right politicians are a far greater threat to democracy than migrants. 

Sunak’s use of migrants is based on fear not strength; everything is such a mess he needs to deflect the blame somehow. 

As I quoted in ‘Priorities‘, immigration was a prime concern for only 21% in latest Ipsos survey.  

With hindsight, as we steadily decline, becoming  a poor country inhabited by a few rich people, the Tories scapegoating of migrants has played a pivotal role in our social and economic descent. For too long the electorate was fooled by Tory claims that migrants were overrunning the state, when the real culprits were themselves.  

Essentially, fascists / populists thrive on dissent, desperation and divisiveness, therefore, in addition to migrants, climate protesters and concerns also offer rich-pickings. 

Sunak is now posing as the driver’s champion and anyone championing net zero are Marxist ‘wokerati’. Potentially, the general election could end as a referendum on whether climate change exists.  
 

‘the general election could end as a referendum on whether climate change exists’

 
Within this there will be different creeds, some concerned about ULEZ and their diesel cars, others the inconvenience caused by ‘Just Stop Oil’ protesters. On the fringes, the hardcore will coalesce around Farage, openly repudiating the goal of net zero. 

In theory, this looks like electoral suicide; 71% of the British public is in favour of the net zero target.  

Labour is C. 20 points ahead in the polls. Research commissioned by Channel 4 this week projected a landslide victory for Keir Starmer and the Conservatives reduced to 90 seats, with high-profile losses including Sunak himself and 17 cabinet ministers. In short, assuming a ‘normal’ election campaign Sunak is toast! 

In practice things might playout differently, this won’t be a ‘normal’ election campaign. As I wrote above, fascists / populist thrive on dissent, desperation and divisiveness; the Tories will initially try to destroy the unity of their opponents, and then torch any faith in evidence, facts and expertise, and spread a sense of hopelessness and frustration.  

As we know Labour are tempering their original green new deal pledge, £28bn a year to tackle the climate crisis, but their policy is still to block all new oil and gas projects in the North Sea.  

Sunak has moved in the opposite direction, issuing 100 new oil and gas licences. The question is, why? 

It serves no immediate purpose as the fields will take 5-7-yrs to become operational. In addition the North Sea fields cane be described as ‘mature’, therefore there is unlikely to be discoveries of major oilfields. A fact reflected in the last two rounds of licences, with only C. one-third of the blocks on offer attracting bids; the super-majors are selling up their North Sea assets. 

However, were the new licences for practical or political reasons? Reflecting true Tory cynicism, Sunak has tried to back Starmer into a corner; does he revoke them breaching an enforceable contract, or does he puts contract law before climate concerns? 

To date the figures show we have played at climate change, our renewable capacity has fallen to an average increase of 4.45% in the past three years, compared with an average 9.67% annual increase globally. 
 

‘To date the figures show we have played at climate change’

 
In the UK, total renewable capacity grew by 1.96% in 2020, 3.65% in 2021 and 7.74% in 2022, averaging a capacity of just 4.45% a year – well down from the 24.26% growth recorded in 2015. 

Roger Fouquet, a senior research fellow at the Energy Studies Institute in the National University of Singapore, said that as countries such as Iceland move towards 100% renewable energy, ‘its investment is likely to slow down, only increasing to meet the rising demand of power‘. However, he noted that the UK cannot compare. 

‘The UK’s current renewable electricity capacity is below 50%, and has a great deal of further investment to undertake to claim to be a leader in low-carbon energy systems. In fact, 45% of European economies have a higher share of renewable electricity capacity.’  

To successfully deliver pro-climate politics, there needs a positive element as well, a promise that life would be better in some respects with fewer emissions. The US government is beginning to find the right way to say this. ‘President Biden sees action on climate change as an opportunity to lower [energy] costs for all Americans, create good-paying union jobs for workers and address the cumulative impacts of pollution on disadvantaged communities,’ wrote his energy adviser John Podesta last year. Fossil fuel capitalism is so socially and environmentally damaging that winning over voters to an alternative should not be impossibly hard. 
 

‘Fossil fuel capitalism is so socially and environmentally damaging that winning over voters to an alternative should not be impossibly hard’

 
Whilst a progressive Democrat-led US shows the way, we continue to plumb the depths with negative, divisive politics. Sunak is a ‘bucket list’ man. Like the Tories, he doesn’t care, it’s all about goals, there is staying in-power. The how, and what don’t concern them. 

For Sunak it’s slightly different: Get to Oxford, tick; MBA, tick; join Goldman, tick; marry well, tick; get US Green Card, tick; set-up hedge fun, tick; enter politics, tick; become an MP, tick; be appointed to cabinet, tick; become PM, tick. 

What’s next? If, hopefully when he loses the next election he could resign from UK politics and move his family to the US. He’s young, only 43, plenty of time to make US president!  

Our gain will be their loss! 
 

‘You darken my door 

Whatever you’re looking for 

Hey, don’t come around here no more‘ 

 

Philip’s preamble is too good to not let it speak for itself:

Moving on from the trilogy of past weeks, today we look forward to how the Tories might position themselves ahead of the next election.

It will be a sea of negativity, rubbishing Labour at every opportunity. They have descended into a mob, preaching despair and divisiveness.

Immigrants will bear the brunt, all our problems would be solved if they went away.

Progressiveness in general will be rubbished; our schools will be full of transsexual teachers, the NHS will be swamped with 5-yrs olds wanting sex changes, etc..

Climate change will be explained as a Marxist plot, and something unaffordable. I mean, Hawaii, it’s a long way away, after all.

Priorities will be tax cuts we can’t afford, but they make wonderful bribes. Pictures on Brittania rising phoenix-like will abound. Oh, and lots of flags.

Speaking of bribes, the PM  has pledged to stick to the pension triple lock, which will  cost the Treasury an extra £10bn next year – £2.5bn more than estimated in the spring budget. Talk of the Treasury is rubbish, it’s us, taxpayers, who are funding this extravagance.

In comparison,  the 35% pay increase demanded by junior doctors costs between £1bn and £2 bn, depending on whose calculations you use.

The Department of Health and Social Care says the gross cost (I.E., what it would add to the NHS wage bill) would be over £2 billion. The British Medical Association estimates the net cost (I.E., its overall impact on public finances) would be around £1 billion.

The reason we can afford one and not the other is easily explained. A breakdown of the result of the 2019 general election showed that support for the Conservatives rose steadily with age, with two-thirds of the over-70s backing Boris Johnson’s party.

Priorities, dear boy, priorities.

Lyrically, we start with the classic Bacharach and David composition, “I Just Don’t Know What to do With Myself” we end with Tom Petty’s “Don’t Come Around Here No More”. Enjoy!

 
@coldwarsteve
 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment

banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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