Brexit – Overview and Outcomes

Introduction by James de Sausmarez

Director and Head of Investment Trusts

“The central message is to keep calm and await developments; there are many permutations from here and it will take some time for the way forward to be clear.

There is no need for a knee-jerk reaction as managing Britain’s exit will be at least a two year process and there will be a lot for us to know and understand in that time.

I do not think anyone is going to be hurried not least because we are facing the biggest constitutional crisis since Suez or even the abdication of Edward VIII! The Tories are now attempting to unite going forward by giving themselves some time for the dust to settle and to agree how to move forward so as to keep us in the Single Market whilst also giving us direct control over the levels of migration/immigration, a key issue driving voters to the Leave camp (the first time I can remember voters finding an issue that is so important to them that they were prepared to accept the economic consequences).

I do not think the Farage view of immediate and unconditional withdrawal will prevail. In economic terms, uncertainty over the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU will most likely hold back investment and cause companies for whom the single market is important to start looking at relocating some activity. However, the fall in sterling will help in the short term and so will Mark Carney’s comments and the actions of the Bank of England. That said, there is no doubt that the UK economy is facing an inevitable period of uncertainty and upheaval.”

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