Beginning to See the Light: Gone! But Danger and Delusions Remain

 

‘Or cancel it, though I know it must be 

The killing time 

Unwillingly mine’ 

 
Yet another Tory experiment with our future crashes and burns. Each one seems to be more spectacular than the last. 

Yesterday we were treated to the Home Secretary resigning, though she would have been little missed. This was followed by what can only be described as the behaviour you would expect in a third-world parliament. 

In a vote over fracking MPs alleged that ministers physically pulled some wavering Tories into the voting lobbies. This fiasco was followed by reports that the chief whip, Wendy Morton, and her deputy, Craig Whittaker, had lost their jobs, which were later denied by Downing Street. 

Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, was seen trying to calm a group of predominantly female MPs who were discussing what had taken place.  

One Tory backbencher said it was ‘the most bullying, screaming and shouting’ they had seen in the voting lobbies, with Morton and Whittaker being engaged in a ‘full-blown shouting match‘. 

Another said Whittaker had been seen telling colleagues: ‘I am fucking furious and I don’t give a fuck anymore.’ 

Veteran Tory backbencher Charles Walker, described the scenes as ‘inexcusable. I think it’s a shambles and a disgrace.’  

He added: ‘I’m livid and I really shouldn’t say this but all those people that put Liz Truss in No 10, I hope it was worth it, it was worth it for the ministerial red box, as it was worth it to sit round the cabinet table, because the damage they have done to our party is extraordinary.’ 
 

‘inexcusable. I think it’s a shambles and a disgrace‘

 
In fairness Truss was only another symptom of the diseases that ravages the Tory’s. They consistently claim they are the party of government, yet each one is worse than the last. Truss did what she promised in her campaign and, when it didn’t work, they dumped her. The party is the problem not her. 

Her resignation letter summed this up: 

‘And our country had been held back for too long by low economic growth. I was elected by the Conservative Party with a mandate to change this. We delivered on energy bills and on cutting national insurance. And we set out a vision for a low tax, high growth economy – that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit. I recognise though, given the situation, I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party’. 

From the outset her solutions were misjudged, misguided, and doomed to failure. But, she was open about her objectives and was selected because of them. 

Where next? The party is so fragmented it’s almost impossible for them to coalesce around a new leader. A moderate such as Hunt will upset the right, whilst another right-wing maniac, such as Braverman or Badenoch risks renewed market chaos and voter despair. 

There are several scenario’s here. Johnson can claim to have a mandate to govern. His return would divisive but would perhaps buy the Tory’s time. Anyone else and the clamour for an election would be overwhelming and totally justified, which is the one thing the party is desperate to avoid, as they risk being decimated at the polls 

Let’s take a step back, and consider where we actually are. I have used the term delusional before, and we collectively suffer from it with a capital D. It’s a large part of the problem, until we face up to where truly are we can’t move on. 

Let’s start with the name ‘Great’. Sorry, but no. Former glories, rooted in the past. Too many are still fighting WW2, which is why we still dislike Germany and France. 
 

‘Too many are still fighting WW2, which is why we still dislike Germany and France’

 
‘United’, hardly. The north dislikes the south and visa versa. Scotland wants devolution, Wales too, if the truth be known. NI, has a Protestant minority that are more British than me, and a Catholic majority who want to be Irish. 

Which, of course leads to Brexit, which was driven by racism, and British exceptionalism. Europe was holding us back. Rubbish; George Osbornes austerity, and the collective delusions of grandeur were the real issue. 

From 2010 to  July 2016 (Brexit referendum) we were subject to the austerity policies of George Osborne. This achieved nothing, other than wrecking our hospitals, schools and town halls, and stoked the frustrations that ensured Brexit. People who voted out didn’t have issues with Brussels, it was Tory austerity, Hospital waiting lists, lack of council house, the loss of industry, the void caused by privatisation was all down to 40-yrs of small state Thatcherism. 

It could have been so different; in 2010 interest rates were at all-time lows, this was the ideal time for governments to spend and invest. Instead of rebuilding our post-GFC economy, we chose to penalise the working poor with ongoing spending cuts.  

The Torys oscillate between two extremes; tax cuts which produces inequality rather than growth, or austerity that never brings prosperity. 

Where are we today? 
 

• Inflation is at a 40-year-high.  
• Food bills are soaring.  
• Pensioners fearing of rising energy costs avoid using their central heating 

 
What do we have to look forward to? Yet more cuts in public spending and tax increases.  

The policies derided by Truss as ‘abacus economics’ are back. Jeremy Hunt promises orthodoxy, he started with talk of austerity, but couldn’t resist promising great things after that. He talked about having three of the world’s top 10 universities; a global financial sector; ‘incredible strength’ in the creative industries, science, engineering, manufacturing and innovation. 
 

‘The ironic point is that Truss was right’

 
The ironic point is that Truss was right, we have been doing things the orthodox for last 15-years, post the GFC, and it hasn’t worked. Real wages have barely grown, investment has been weak, the public finances are worse, and our trade deficit has hit new highs.  

Hunt was right to highlight what we do well, but the totally glossed over our failings: 
 

• We depend on foreign investors to finance our budget and trade deficits 
• The NHS bounces from crisis to crisis 

 
• We lack the necessary energy infrastructure 
• Crime and Policing is a disaster 
• Transport is old and decaying  

 
Hunt talked about the City, which helps finance our trade deficit and keeps the housing market booming. It works for many living in London and the south-east, even then there are a number of families living in poverty, but does little for the rest of the country. 

Inequality has become a fact of life and compares badly with our contemporaries. Brexit has led to widespread job shortages, and has lead to the creation of a ‘zero-hour jobs’ where work is sporadic and badly paid. This is what you expect from a struggling, developing, or emerging market economy, not one that still believes it’s in the top-tier. 

Hunt’s proposals of more austerity will do nothing  for upgrading infrastructure, or for crime and policing. Austerity style public sector wages will only increase the rate of defections to the public sector. Raising taxes and cutting spending during a downturn will deepen and prolong the recession. 
 

‘Raising taxes and cutting spending during a downturn will deepen and prolong the recession’

 
Truss had identified the problem, Hunt’s orthodoxy and austerity offers only ‘managed decline’. To achieve prosperity and healthy public finances we need to improve the performance of the economy. 

Economies grow from emerging to successful, then become mature. However, like mature humans they grow old and stagnate. To jump off this rollercoaster, nations need to reinvent themselves,  to start thinking like an emerging market economy. New industries are needed to replace the old. As the Guardian highlighted today (20-10), Taiwan makes 65% of the world’s semiconductors and 90% of its advanced chips. 

As with anything, before you can solve the problem there needs to be an acceptance that there is one. Once you have done that education and training needs to be improved and relevant. Only then can you begin to develop the sectors that will drive the economy forward, resulting in increased exports which will improve the trade deficit, and reduce the reliance on the financial sector. 

This is what should have happened after Thatcherism butchered our industry creating ghost towns and sowing the seeds that become the ‘left behind’ who voted for Brexit. These are the towns that should be the development zones that Trussonomics envisaged.  

Allied to this is supporting the new industries. Elsewhere, business was nurtured with tax concessions, procurement, public ownership, state aid, infant industry support and capital controls. 

Our problems are deep seated, and have their genesis is Thatcherism. What we are really talking about is the role of state versus the markets; big government versus small government. We have experimented with small government since 1979, it hasn’t worked. 

Until we can admit that Thatcherism, free-markets, supply-side reforms, neo-liberalism, et al have run their race we won’t move on. Reinventing yourself, your business, or your economy isn’t fun, I have done it and it’s painful. 
 

 

Remember this; if you always do what you always did, you will always get what always got. ⁽¹⁾ 

‘Just a perfect day 

Problems all left alone 

Weekenders on our own 

It’s such fun’ 

 
Notes: 

1. Attributed to Henry Ford  

 
We’re always extremely pleased to hear from Philip, but that we have yet again received a ‘stop press’ so soon after his recent contribution rather beggars the question ‘WTAF is going on here’. 

There is no question that to a political journalist, this is the gift that keeps on giving, but for us mere mortals, I think we are deserving of rather better leadership.

It’s not particularly comfortable reading, but I defy all but the most blinkered old buffers not to recognise the Disunited Kingdom or Not-that-Great Britain, he describes.

And so unless something dramatic changes, we’re going to have yet another PM imposed upon us. We’re told that Mr Sunak did himself no favours six short weeks ago by sliding a stiletto between Boris’ shoulderblades; yet just a couple of days after giving her guvnor both barrels, it seems likely that the erstwhile Home Secretary will be joining the fray.

A recent tweeter tickled me by saying that Suella Braverman is what you get if you feed Priti Patel after midnight.

The 1922 Committee has set a pretty high bar by requiring would-be candidates to garner the support of 100 MPs, and the bookies will almost certainly install Mr Sunak as their favourite, despite Ms Mourdant’s decent showing whilst Liz was in Boris’ fridge.

However, the mop-topped lothario couldn’t wait to whip off his budgie smugglers after yet another Carribean holiday – no doubt a token of somebody’s gratitude for either having a tax bill or a crime sheet wiped clean – and hop on a plane to join the fray.

Surely not, right? Well, if he pulls out all the fibs, and gets over the threshold, who would bet against him winning if it went to the party?

‘We’re sorry the new PM can’t be here this evening, but he’s been banged up by the Parliamentary Standards Committee for misleading the house’. I don’t even want to think how Nadine Dorries would smuggle in a file.

So, what was Philip thinking?:

‘Truss was totally wrong for the job, as have been the majority of recent PM’s, e.g. May, Johnson. That isn’t her fault, that lies with the people who selected her.

As he resignation letter points out, she did what she promised, it was ill-judged and badly conceived, and the markets said NO. Result, they fire her for doing what she promised.

This a Tory party that needs to totally recalibrate, to back to basics, and distance itself from the hard-right think tanks such as the IEA that have been mentoring its new MPs. Indoctrinating them might be more accurate.

Truss diagnosed the problem, economic stagnation, but her treatment was wrong. Small state neoliberalism is over, government support is the way forward.

Our problem is simple, we live with past delusions of grandeur. As with any problem until you admit it you cannot treat it.

We won the war but lost the peace, and are still paying the price for focusing on winning.

This piece isn’t pretty and will upset many. Too bad, the truth always hurts.

Musically, we start with a personal favourite, Echo and the Bunnymen’s “Killing Moon”. To finish we have Lou Reed’s “Perfect Day”. You never know we might just get there, one day! Enjoy.

@coldwarsteve
 

 
 
 
Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

 

Click on the link to see all Brexit Bulletins:

&