Beginning to See the Light: The Man Who Fell to Earth

 

‘In this age of grand illusion 

You walked into my life 

Out of my dreams’ 

 

Last weeks mega-swing away from the government in one of their safest seats is the clearest warning yet that the electorate are tired of this government and the PMs antics. 

As I wrote last week MPs also seem to view Johnson as a liability, as 100 of them took the opportunity to disagree with his leadership, effectively a vote of no confidence, and a formal warning. 

This was endorsed over the weekend with the resignation of Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, citing frustrations over Brexit negotiations and broader concerns over the government’s Covid policies, and tax increases. 

At a conference last month, Frost said: ‘I am very happy that free Britain, or at least merry England, is probably now the freest country in the world as regards Covid restrictions. No mask rules, no vaccine passports, and long may it remain so.’ 

Frosts’ resignation was described by prominent Brexiter, Andrew Bridgen, as ‘a watershed moment’. 

One Conservative frontbencher says the PM has confirmed the suspicion many voters always had: that ‘when you peek behind the curtain, Tories are privileged, sneering elites who take the rest of us for fools’. Johnson was seen as different to the Tory stereotype of stuffy formality, but now he is seen as the embodiment of the Tory belief that it’s one rule for them, and one rule for everyone else, as they look out for themselves and their mates, both of which are pampered and spoilt, and laughing at those who are less privileged.  

 

‘Privileged, sneering elites who take the rest of us for fools’

 

This is a kick-in-the-teeth for those voters in the ‘red wall’, who believed that Johnson was not like the others, and it upsets traditional Tories who, as one Tory MP said, concluded that the prime minister is ‘someone whose morals and character they don’t like or respect’. 

Johnson has tried to govern in a presidential style of government, using television and press conferences primarily because he can control proceedings. When he doesn’t have this control, for example at PMQs, Starmer is landing decisive blows. 

What we end up with is a continuation of the ideological fixations of the Conservative party, and its capacity to ditch weakened leaders, which has led to a hard Brexit, and is now sabotaging the fight against Covid. The party has become so detached from reality that is cannot be trusted to govern, especially when led by someone installed because he embodies the same irresponsible spirit.  

Backbench revolts have become an everyday event, often joined by Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee, along with other serial offenders such as Iain Duncan Smith and Edward Leigh.  

Steve Baker is the most focused of the Tory backbench organisers. The 2019 intake, supposedly Johnson backers when they were elected, is itself now well represented in the rebel ranks by MPs such as Lee Anderson and Dehenna Davison. 

 

‘someone whose morals and character they don’t like or respect’

 

Philosophically, these revolts are more and more based on the growing importance of right-wing libertarianism in the modern Tory party, which represents a break with the party’s origins and past. Historically, the Tory party stood for order and authority, even Margaret Thatcher, often cited as the modern Tory party’s guiding light because of her economic individualism, argued that the party stood for what she called ‘ordered liberty’. Thatcher was never afraid to tell people how they should live their lives. 

Today, the party’s libertarians view every power given to any public official as a step towards tyranny. All departments of the state are viewed as threat to individual liberty, and all the checks and balances of liberal democracy, such as parliament and the law, are attempts to disarm the sovereign individual.  

Graham Brady described the UK government’s earlier lockdown measures as going ‘full eastern bloc’ and warned against being ‘pinged into the gulag’. Another rebel, Desmond Swayne, said the government’s proposals were the work of an Orwellian Ministry of Fear and claimed that the Health Protection Agency was the creation of ‘Stalinist minds’. 

These libertarians have a selective view of who should be able to avail themselves of liberty. They are authoritarians with a veneer of libertarianism to cover their misdemeanours.     

The government’s police, crime, sentencing, and courts bill is one of the most ferociously illiberal laws of recent times, yet not one libertarian Tory has voted against the bill.  

The nationality and borders bill proposes ‘differential treatment of refugees’ depending on how they arrived here. Those who come through ‘regular means’ – with papers or permission to enter the UK – will be eligible to claim asylum. But any asylum seeker who ‘knowingly arrives’ without ‘leave to enter’ could be jailed for up to four years. Additionally, anyone helping asylum seekers will also be criminalised, even if providing humanitarian assistance, and could face life imprisonment. 

One of the many amendments added to the bill allows the home secretary to deprive an individual of citizenship without even informing them. Tory MP and former Brexit minister David Davis described the bill as ‘deeply flawed’ and suggested that plans to establish offshore asylum detention centres could ‘create a British Guantánamo Bay’. 

Despite these comments Davis supported the bill, as did 290 other Tory MPs, 66 abstained or did not vote. Not one opposed the bill. 

These Tory libertarians are not libertarians, they are happy to accept denial by the state of individual liberty so long as it is directed against people they deem unworthy of such freedoms, whether protesters or immigrants. 

 

‘People are now consistently supportive of the more cautious approach to the pandemic that the rebels dislike’

 

This paranoia over Covid regulations is part of their exaggerations about British victimhood, that formed the basis of their Brexit arguments; EU membership destroyed all national sovereignty, reduced a free people to vassal status. Brexit was about liberating and then empower us. Has this been the case? Now they claim that showing evidence of a negative lateral flow test makes Britain a police state is equally removed. 

It is a view almost wholly at odds with the more balanced and pragmatic way that the public sees the same issues. 

The reason for this is a change in the publics’ mood, people are now consistently supportive of the more cautious approach to the pandemic that the rebels dislike. The more the rebels succeed in capturing the Tory party, therefore, the more dangerous the situation becomes for both Johnson and the party.  

As a member of the public my own view of Covid is partly shaped by what I hear and read. An example of this is the way their MPs have been taking out their frustration on England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, for what they see as his promotion of ‘lockdown by stealth’.  

One of them, Joy Morrissey, said ‘Perhaps the covid unelected public health spokesperson should defer to what our ELECTED members of parliament and the prime minister have decided. I know it’s difficult to remember but this is not how democracy works. This is not a public health socialist state.’ 

Joy, who is currently PPS to Dominic Raab, has a master’s degree in European social policy from the LSE. Her impressive CV includes being elected councillor in Ealing, and acting in a TV movie called Geek Mythology, about a man who acquires a magical statue that makes him irresistible to women! 

Witty by comparison has doctorate in medical science from Oxford; two diplomas, in tropical medicine and hygiene, and economics; three master’s degrees, in epidemiology, medical law and business administration. His CV includes acting chief scientific adviser; director of research at the Department for International Development; chief scientific adviser to the Department of Health; head of the National Institute for Health Research Education; consultant physician at University College London hospitals; professor of public and international health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. 

Need I say more. 

Turning to the economy, last weeks increase in interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25% shows that the Bank of England (‘BoE’, ‘the Bank’) is an out-of-touch as the government. 

As we know inflation is currently 5.1%, well over the ‘target’ of 2%, making this increase in rates look like a ‘risk management’ policy with the Bank more concerned with its own issues than the wider economy. Earlier this year, inflation was almost flat, and the Bank considered pushing interest rates into negative territory. 

The Treasury, which had previously sought to protect vulnerable businesses and households the focus seems to be on balancing the books and stash away any spare cash. Rishi Sunak has made it clear to Tory backbenchers that he wants to keep the UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio below the psychologically important 100% barrier, and that any spare funds should be used to cut taxes before the next election, a mission that limits what will be available in the latest round of Covid support. 

 

‘Next year is likely to be marked by acute economic pain for some parts of the economy alongside a nationwide living standards squeeze’

 

Labour market figures released 2-weeks ago showed wage increases moderated in October to below 4%, indicating that despite rising employment and widespread vacancies, workers are likely to see a fall in disposable incomes in the run-up to Christmas. 

Jack Leslie, a senior economist at the Resolution Foundation thinktank, referring to the combined impact of the Omicron variant and inflation, said: ‘Next year is likely to be marked by acute economic pain for some parts of the economy alongside a nationwide living standards squeeze’. 

It is not so much the increase itself as the message of detachment it sends out as business cashflows are running dry and countless households are struggling to make ends meet. Even some of the most cautious economists have asked why, when wages and inflation figures are still distorted by the pandemic, the central bank would behave as if there were a coherent economic story from which to build a fresh monetary policy. 

Sunak is blinded by the need to appear ‘Tory’ if he wants to be their next leader, and the Bank seems to be trying to deal with a situation it barely understands with a policy that is only going to depress an economy that is already grinding to a halt.  

If we are concerned about inflation, it is stagflation we should be really frightened of. To overcome that you need to stimulate demand, which requires borrowers to get the economy moving. Making borrowing more expensive only increases the doom loop. 

The big question surrounding this rise in inflation is, is it transitory (short-term), or not? 

 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, when addressing a recent congressional hearing said, ‘We tend to use [transitory] to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation,’ Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said. ‘I think it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean.’ 

He added that while it’s difficult to predict how long the effects of supply chain issues will linger, it appears that ‘factors pushing inflation upward will linger well into next year.’ 

 

‘If we are concerned about inflation, it is stagflation we should be really frightened of’

 

Much of the current rise in costs is due to supply chain challenges and the rapid increases in demand that will likely ease as economies continues to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the UK this has been exacerbated by the dual effects of Brexit on transport and delivery, and rising heating, and fuel costs.  

Janine Boshoff, an economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said inflation was likely to be persistent and stay above 5% throughout the first half of 2022. Which, by 1970s standards is transitory! 

I had intended this week’s article to be a review of 2021, but on recollection I thought it best not to. Covid isn’t showing any signs of going away, and more lockdowns look possible. Economically, we have shortages, queues, and rising prices. The government is neck deep in sleaze and corruption, whilst trying to foist a police state upon us. As for the police, the less said the better. 

On the sporting front Lewis Hamilton was cheated out his eighth world title, we did well in the Olympics. Our football team was a beacon for diversity and progression but fell at the very last hurdle. We have a ladies tennis champion, as for cricket….move on, nothing to be seen here. 

 

I wish each and everyone of you, and your families a wonder Christmas, and as happy a 2022 as is possible! 

  

 

‘In these frozen and silent nights 

Sometimes in a dream, you appear 

Outside under the purple sky 

Diamonds in the snow sparkle’ 

 

Philip’s preamble set something of a gloomy tone – ‘My planned review of 2012 crashed and burned as it was so miserable. This piece isn’t any better but the news is what the news is.’

So, no chestnuts roasting on an open fire here, but Philip’s summary is difficult to beat in terms of brevity and accuracy: ‘Covid isn’t showing any signs of going away, and more lockdowns look possible. Economically, we have shortages, queues, and rising prices. The government is neck deep in sleaze and corruption, whilst trying to foist a police state upon us. As for the police, the less said the better’.

I leafed through a year’s worth of previous columns in search of some good news, but there was precious little to be found; in my mind I’d convinced myself that Boris’ troubles really only kicked in after he decided/was encouraged to defend the entirely indefensible Owen Patterson, when in fact he has lurched from one crisis to another of varying magnitude.

Do we really want to see his mental midgets flapping around on the morning TV round explaining that having cheese and wine doesn’t turn a business meeting into a social gathering. FFS – but the reality is that they still don’t really ‘get it’ – maybe quails eggs are allowed but not a dippy boily-boy.

The virus never really went away, and despite a generally cautious public being inclined to gratefully accept a jab, neither did the ‘rebels’ determined to avoid further lockdowns at seemingly any cost. One commentator today suggested that it is an easy stance to take for those who rely on investment income from functioning businesses without actually having to cram on the tube.

But as we face another uncertain Christmas, this time courtesy of the Omicron variant, have we actually learned anything in the last twelve months? Well, apparently not – Boris has just made a statement confirming that he definitely, probably won’t be imposing any further restrictions, although he’ll obviously be keeping an eye on the data and will almost inevitably be forced to impose further restrictions when those that are now steering the ship say that he can.

Isn’t that just yet more dithering? Yes, but Prof Rees-Mogg MD has said that there’s no need to listen to those science boffs. And he has some weighty support from no less an intellect than Joy Morrissey, who said ‘Perhaps the covid unelected public health spokesperson should defer to what our ELECTED members of parliament and the prime minister have decided. I know it’s difficult to remember but this is not how democracy works. This is not a public health socialist state.’  

Can you imagine how cerebral it is necessary to be to carry Dominic Raab’s satchel?

Didn’t learn much apparently at the airports either; Delta apparently elbowed its way in as Johnson wrestled to achieve a trade deal with India. Omicron started to fill its chops when Grant ‘Two Planes’ Shapps and Robert Courts, under pressure form the powerful aviation lobby, cowed to demands to remove the ‘unfair’ red list (including South Africa whence it came) that was preventing ‘hard working families’ travelling or families being reunited.

Arguably being in ICU is equally restrictive when it comes to international travel.

So with hospitality facing an uncertain Christmas, sporting events considering closed doors again and families being told to exercise extreme caution there is a distinct feeling of deja vu – all over again; still, there’s always next year to look forward to with inflation gnawing away and turbo-charged fuel bills. Ho, ho ho.

Two tracks to close out, just for fun – David Bowie with ‘Word on a Wing’ and the Pretenders with ‘2000 Miles’ – ‘the only Christmas song I can listen to’. Have the Christmas you would wish for, and a safe and prosperous New Year – enjoy!

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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