Heroes: Comédie-Anglaise 

 

‘But when it comes down to fooling you 

Now honey that’s quite a different subject’ 

 
The fiascos continue to mount-up. Only days after finally passing legislation that allow the government to offshore immigrants to Rwanda comes the news that we would, if only we knew where to find them! 

Of the 5,700 it has identified to put on the first flights, only 2,145, 38%, ‘continue to report to the Home Office and can be located for detention‘. 

The shadow immigration minister, Stephen Kinnock, said the statistics exposed ‘the total lack of grip the Conservatives have over the asylum system and the chaos at the heart of their Rwanda policy. 

‘The prime minister promised to detain and remove all those who crossed the Channel. Now he can’t even locate those intended for removal. How can the Conservative Home Office keep losing so many people? 

‘Labour has a plan to reverse the Tory collapse in removals with a 1,000 officer-strong returns and enforcement unit, and smash the criminal gangs responsible for the evil smuggling trade.’ 

Fine sounding words from Labour, personally I wont be holding my breath in anticipation! This is organised crime, something that is notoriously difficult to deal with. Whilst there is demand the gangs will maintain supply. 
 

‘The prime minister promised to detain and remove all those who crossed the Channel. Now he can’t even locate those intended for removal’

 
Another piece of craziness from Sunak is the idea of doing away with National Insurance (‘NIC’). 

One of Rishi’s heroes is former chancellor Nigel Lawson (really! No wonder he’s so dull), who he describes as a ‘transformational chancellor and an inspiration to me and many others. One of the first things he did as chancellor in Boris Johnson’s government was to hang a portrait of Lawson above his desk.  

A type-written memo from 1986, marked secret, was sent to Thatcher two months before Lawson’s third budget and was enclosed alongside a green paper set to be published that day. The document was found in the archives of the Margaret Thatcher Foundation.  

In the brief, Lawson says he has considered ‘the scope for integrating income tax and national insurance contributions’, but concludes: ‘I see little practical merit in moving in this direction; it would destroy the contributory principle and create many losers, especially among the elderly.’ 

In the separate green paper, Lawson says low earners would benefit from the change but it would come at the expense of those who are not currently liable for NICs. 

‘Applying the new combined charge to all income would result in significant shifts in the tax burden between different sections of the community,’ it says. ‘Elderly taxpayers and other pensioners would probably be the largest group to suffer disadvantage.’ He says the shift ‘would be hard to justify on either economic or social grounds’. 

The paper goes on: ‘If benefits were paid to everyone, regardless of their contribution, there would be substantial extra costs which would have to be borne by the general body of taxpayers … Tax-paying pensioners would in a sense be asked to pay twice: after a lifetime of paying NICs, they would then have to pay contributions towards benefits which they thought they had earned as of right on the basis of their earlier contributions.’ 

Whilst there is the irony of  Sunak considering something so contra to what his hero believed, there is a more important point; the public release of the memo comes as Labour plans a new campaign to appeal to voters of pension age – the only demographic where the Conservatives still lead on voting intention.  

Whilst the last 14-yrs of Tory misrule has meant varying degrees of suffering for the majority, the minority have done rather well. 

In the editorial to ‘Armageddon Time‘ I briefly highlighted how Tory economic policy had benefitted the few. 

Analysis by Oxfam of global data showed that dividend payments to shareholders over the last three years grew an average of 14x faster than worker pay across 31 major economies. 
 

‘dividend payments to shareholders over the last three years grew an average of 14x faster than worker pay across 31 major economies’

 
The charity said the division of profits in economies that account for 81% of global income, or gross domestic product (GDP), is heavily skewed to shareholders, creating ‘a yawning gap‘ between the rich and those on middle to low incomes. 

Oxfam said the Janus Henderson global dividend index, which monitors annual corporate dividends, was on course this year to beat an all-time high of $1.66tn reached last year. (1) 

Dividend payouts climbed by 45% ($195bn) in 31 countries between 2020 and 2023, while wages grew by just 3%. 

If Chinese companies are excluded, global wages growth, after inflation is taken into account, fell by 3% during this period. 

‘Using data from Wealth-X, Oxfam estimates that the richest 1% pocketed an average of $9,000 in dividends in 2023. This is equivalent to eight months’ wages for the average worker,’ the report said. 

Published to coincide with International Workers’ Day, the analysis shows that in the UK, after taking inflation into account, dividends increased by 13% between 2020 and 2023, while average wages remained stagnant. 

Another study by the Common Wealth thinktank found that between 2000 and 2019, dividend payments grew 5.5x faster than workers’ pay on average each year. 

If pay had kept pace with dividend payments, workers would each be £2,844 better off a year, it concluded. 

If employee compensation and dividend payments had grown at an equal pace between 1988 and 2019, the report found, hourly labour compensation on the eve of the pandemic would have been almost 9% higher than it actually was. (2) 

Between 1988 and 2019, Common Wealth found that labour compensation increased by an average of 1.6% a year, while the figure for dividends grew by 4.2%. If both had risen at the same pace of 1.9%, which represents a weighted split, labour compensation would have been 8.9% higher an hour by 2019. 
 

‘as night follows day, if people are struggling financially, homelessness increases’

 
And, as night follows day, if people are struggling financially, homelessness increases; the number of people being made homeless in England jumped by 16%, C. 45,000 households  in the final three months of last year, according to the latest government figures. 

The figures also show the number of people – including children – in temporary accommodation hit record levels in 2023, triggering warnings of a housing ‘emergency‘. 

Polly Neate, the chief executive of Shelter, said: ‘Decades of failure to build enough genuinely affordable social homes has left families struggling to cobble together extortionate sums every month to keep a roof over their heads. 

‘Those who can’t afford private rents are being thrown into homelessness and then left for months and even years in damaging temporary accommodation because there is nowhere else.’ 

A spokesperson for the Department of Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said: ‘….which is why we’re giving councils £1.2bn….’. At face value this sounds great, but, in reality, it’s a drop in the ocean. In addition, it shows clearly Tory priorities when you compare it to their boast ‘…Combined with changes at Autumn Statement, today’s announcements deliver personal tax cuts worth £20 billion….’ (3) 

As part of their election pledge in 2019, the Conservatives promised they would build 300,000 additional homes every year by the mid-2020s. Last year, however, only 234,400 new homes were added to England’s housing stock, while MPs say the figure is unlikely to get close to the government’s target by 2025. 
 

‘There is no compelling evidence that the threat of being offshored is deterring either would-be immigrants or the people smugglers’

 
I deliberately used these stories as a prelude to this week local elections, which, given that we are in now within months of a general election provide an accurate summation of voter intentions. 

The stories above paint a very clear picture; immigration, their key initiative is still far from being dealt with. There is no compelling evidence that the threat of being offshored is deterring either would-be immigrants or the people smugglers. 

In truth, immigration is primarily an issue for die-hard Tories and those that will defect to Reform. For the majority it is based around inequality and the NHS. As this article clearly shows inequality is bad and getting progressively worse. Homelessness, a by-product of this, is clearly correlated to the cost-of-living crisis and inequality. The government response is £1.2bn  to deal with homelessness and £20bn of tax cuts! 
 

‘The cost of little England costs more every day’

 
The cost-of-living crisis and inflation isn’t gong away. Food will become more expensive. At home crops have suffered due to the winters rainfall, overseas the weather has been too hot. Oh, and then there is the Brexit premium. The cost of little England costs more every day. 

And, as inflation isn’t going away, interest rates will stay at ‘normal levels’. Anyone expecting a return to 2% look away now! 

This weeks local election setbacks for the government are therefore merely confirmation of what is obvious; the Tories will lose the next election.    

Richard Holden, the Conservative party chai told Times Radio: ‘The prime minister is going to go on and lead the Conservative party into the general election, there’s no doubt about that.’ Asked for his response to the results so far, Holden said: ‘Not a great set of results but coming off I think it would be fair to say a very high watermark in 2021.’ 

Holden’s sentiments about Sunak staying as leader were endorse by Henry Hill reports in his ConHome write-up: 

‘Almost two thirds, 63 per cent, say that the prime minister should not resign, whatever plays out over the next couple of days. Of the rest the majority, 20 per cent, think he should step down whatever happens. That leaves just 13 per cent who think his future ought to rest on the results of these elections.’ 

One glimmer of hope for the Tories was Ben Houchen holding on as Mayor of Tees Valley, but even that result is tainted. In 2021, Houchen won with 73% of the vote. This time around he effectively ran as an independent rather than a Conservative, and still suffered a 12.5% swing against him, a move sufficient for Labour to win every parliamentary seat in the region. 

Much to my amusement people appear so disillusioned with the Tories that Karl Marx has been elected. More accurately, Karl Peter Marx Wardlaw (Labour) has been elected to represent Brinnington & Stockport Central. 

What does this tell us? 

From the results already declared shows that recent national polls are correct: Labour is well ahead of the Conservatives, having clawed its way back in leave-voting areas it lost in 2019. The overall picture shows the party heading for a sizeable Westminster majority. 
 

‘results already declared shows that recent national polls are correct: Labour is well ahead of the Conservatives, having clawed its way back in leave-voting areas it lost in 2019’

 
There are areas of concern for Labour, E.G., in areas with high Muslim populations there could be backlash due to events in Gaza splitting the progressive vote, causing potential losses in Bristol Central and Sheffield Hallam and stopping the party gaining a number of target seats in the NW. 

However, the right-wing vote appears to be more split, with Reform nearly overtaking the Tories into second place in Blackpool South. Chris Hopkins, the political research director at the pollster Savanta said: ‘We’ve seen Reform UK achieving vote shares that, if transferred to the Conservatives, would have resulted in far fewer losses.’ 

The Blackpool result is very revealing. The turnout, 32.55, was very low, which makes the disappearance of the Conservative vote all the more remarkable. Fewer people voted Tory in 2024 (3,218) than comprised Scott Benton’s marginal majority in 2019 (3,690). Labour polled well over half the vote, dominating the centre-left vote with the Lib Dems and Greens both losing their deposit. The right-wing vote was divided almost evenly between the Conservatives and Reform UK, giving Labour a massive margin of victory. 
 

‘Sunak is doing himself and the country a massive disservice stumbling along in the hope the situation will turn round’

 
In Blackpool South, Labour In Blackpool South, Labour dominated the centre-left vote, the Lib Dems and Greens both losing their deposit. The right-wing vote was divided almost evenly between the Conservatives and Reform UK, giving Labour a massive margin of victory. dominated the centre-left vote, the Lib Dems and Greens both losing their deposit. The right-wing vote was divided almost evenly between the Conservatives and Reform UK, giving Labour a massive margin of victory. 

One of the most symbolic victories for Labour on Thursday night came in Hartlepool, where the party dramatically lost a byelection in 2021. 

Since then, Starmer has prioritised winning votes in leave-voting ‘red-wall’ areas. This appears to be working, as analysis by Sky News of early results shows the Tories losing most votes in areas that voted for Brexit. 

That strategy means Labour’s votes are now spread more efficiently across the country, allowing it to win far more seats even with the same number of votes. 

For the country an election cannot come soon enough. Sunak is doing himself and the country a massive disservice stumbling along in the hope the situation will turn round. Perhaps he should ask Argentina to invade the Falkland Islands? 
 

‘There’s no comfort in the truth 

Pain is all you’ll find’ 

 
Notes: 
 

1. The index covers the world’s largest 1,200 corporations, representing 90% of global dividends paid. 

1. The pay/dividend gap was based on a weighted average that compensated for the relatively small amount of dividend payments compared with much larger salaries and pensions that make up the bulk of worker compensation. 

1. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-delivers-lower-taxes-more-investment-and-better-public-services-in-budget-for-long-term-growth 

 
 
 A treat for statisticians from Philip, as he crunches the numbers to show exactly what’s going on:

Poor old Rishi, if he wasn’t so obnoxious you could feel sorry for him.

He can perhaps be best summed up in the lyrics from the Carpenters “Close to you”:

“On the day that you were born the angels got together

And decided to create a dream come true

So they sprinkled moon dust in your hair of gold

And starlight in your eyes of blue”

And they made you a crap politician, too! Perhaps not quite what Burt Bacharach and Hal David had in-mind, but it does rhyme.

Perhaps just how bad he is can be summed up by the decision to allow C.30 fossil fuel companies to explore for oil and gas under offshore wind-power sites for the first time.

The North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), which regulates North Sea oil and gas production, is set to confirm that it is granting licences to about 30 companies to look for hydrocarbons on sites earmarked for future offshore windfarms.

This is nothing more than politics to placate restive backbenchers – many of whom are keen to see more oil and gas production in the North Sea. Chris Skidmore, the former Conservative MP who recently quit as Sunak’s net zero champion in protest at the government’s climate policies, said “This is a political and cynical stunt that will only backfire … We need to stop playing politics with climate and people’s future, and take a grownup position on seeking to find consensus for an end date to new oil and gas. With a general election just months away, this is a deeply irresponsible and divisive move that goes against all advice from the International Energy Agency or the UN, and regrettably will further set back the UK’s climate reputation.”

Supporters of the scheme said that if any of the sites under windfarms prove suitable for production, oil and gas platforms will be able to use power from the wind turbines to lower their emissions. They will also have to strike an agreement with windfarm operators before they can begin drilling.

Experts say, however, that the emissions from burning any oil and gas produced will far outweigh whatever is saved in the drilling and extraction processes.

Doug Parr, policy director at Greenpeace UK, said: “It’s hard to think of a worse use of clean electricity from windfarms than powering the dirty industry that’s driving the climate crisis. It’s like using a nicotine patch to roll a cigarette.”

Finally, yet another nail was sunk into the City of London’s coffin this week after 98% of shareholders in the Paddy Power owner Flutter backed a proposal to move its primary listing to New York, which it expected to become effective by the end of May.

Flutter is the latest in a growing list of public companies moving their primary listing from London, weakening the capital’s standing as an international financial centre.

Earlier this year, shareholders at the Anglo-German travel company Tui voted to abandon the LSE in favour of listing its shares solely in Germany. This came after the building materials company CRH last year shifted its main stock market listing to the US.

The drug company Indivior also announced earlier this week that it was getting shareholders to vote on a plan to move its primary listing to New York, while the Telegraph has reported that Ocado is under pressure from shareholders to abandon London for New York.

Oh well, perhaps the Tories can campaign on a platform of levelling-up again. Only this time London and SE will be levelled-down to even-up things!

Lyrically, we start with Smokey Robinson’s “Tears of a Clown”, and we finish with George Michaels’ “Carless Whisper”. Enjoy!

@coldwarsteve

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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