Mr Brightside: A Man of Substance 

 

‘So you got to let me know 

Should I stay, or should I go?’ 

This is a somewhat different piece from my initial draft, but events, namely President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election, changes everything

 
Biden had spent decades striving for the crown, and sincerely believed he could finish the job, he, however, ultimately realised that it was not about him and never had been. 

It was a selfless decision that put the country’s interests before his own. An act of grace in stark contrast with the narcissism of his opponent Donald Trump, who, responding to the news, was his usual moronic self: 

‘Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for president, and is certainly not fit to serve – and never was!’  

‘He only attained the position of president by lies, fake news, and not leaving his basement. All those around him, including his doctor and the media, knew that he wasn’t capable of being president, and he wasn’t. 

‘And now look what he’s done to our country, with millions of people coming across our border, totally unchecked and unvetted, many from prisons, mental institutions, and record numbers of terrorists. We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will remedy the damage he has done very quickly.’ 

JD Vance, Trump’s latest sycophant was no better, calling Biden ‘the worst president of my lifetime’ in a tweet, and attempted to link Vice-President Kamala Harris to his ‘scam policies‘. 

‘Kamala Harris has been right there with him every step of the way. She owns all of these failures, and she lied for nearly four years about Biden’s mental capacity – saddling the nation with a president who can’t do the job.’ 
 

‘An act of grace in stark contrast with the narcissism of his opponent Donald Trump’

 
Trump, if he isn’t already should be running scared, Biden’s decision changes the polarity of the election in November. Should the vice-president, Kamala Harris, be nominated, which seems likely, Republicans will be the ones having to deal with issues of mental competence and an ageing candidate. 

In addition, if the US, like the UK and other countries, want a ‘change’ election, then Trump is no longer the change candidate. A man who has spent his entire media and political career as a limelight-hogging disrupter will now have to respond to disruption on the other side. 

‘Opinion polls strongly suggest that he would have lost in November to Trump, a twice-impeached felon and instigator of the January 6 insurrection. To cling on and go down in flames, returning the White House keys to Trump, would have destroyed Biden’s legacy. He would have been remembered as the man who saved democracy in 2020 only to sacrifice it at the altar of his own ambition in 2024.’ 

Instead, he will be remembered for steering America’s recovery from the Trump presidency and the coronavirus pandemic, delivering legislative achievements that will long outlast him, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, and giving his party a fighting chance to beat Trump again. 

His withdrawal was ‘one of the most stunning acts of patriotism of my lifetime’, Norm Eisen, a former diplomat, wrote on Twitter/X. David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to Barack Obama, added: ‘History will honour him for his many extraordinary accomplishments as president AND for the terribly difficult and selfless decision he made today.’  

Biden’s physical decline, especially in recent months has been well documented, however the televised debate with Trump put it in the spotlight. By the time Biden’s decided to stand aside, 36 congressional Democrats had publicly called on Biden to drop out of the race. Party heavyweights such as Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and even his old boss, Obama, had sent powerful signals.  

Biden offered his support to Harris for the nomination, who would offer a powerful contract to Trump. Tim Miller, who was communications director for the Jeb Bush 2016 presidential campaign, told the MSNBC network: ‘If you want to sum up a contrast, a prosecutor versus a convicted criminal, a woman who wants to protect your freedoms versus an old man that wants to take them away.’ 
 

‘If you want to sum up a contrast, a prosecutor versus a convicted criminal, a woman who wants to protect your freedoms versus an old man that wants to take them away‘ 

 
Kamala Harris is a successful woman and of colour, which could be the deciding factors among the 120,000 or so swing voters in the 6-key swing states and districts who will decide the next president on Nov 5th. Trump has successfully hoodwinked large number of the traditional Democrat demographics of Black Men, Hispanic/Latinos, and Suburban Mothers. If Harris can reverse this trend, and her actions against the overturning of Roe-Wade abortion law, this along with her appeal to younger disaffected Gen-Z voters, could be sufficient to overcome Trump. 

Bill and Hillary Clinton were quick to endorse Harris and there will be more to come. Having witnessed last week’s Republican national convention in Milwaukee, Democrats are seeing the value of unity. 

They are also aware that Trump’s entire political career has been built on divisiveness over race and sex, starting with the lie that Obama might have been born outside the US and gendered attacks on Hillary Clinton in 2016. 

The re-election of Trump will lead to a global crisis, and will have a very detrimental impact on Europe. Whether the naysayers like it or not, we are still part of Europe! And, special relationships will count for nothing! 

Since WW2, Europe has experienced almost unprecedented order. Most European countries are democracies, and members of institutions of peaceful cooperation and conflict resolution, such as the EU and NATO, many are members of the Council of Europe and, or the just-about-surviving Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.   
 

‘The re-election of Trump will lead to a global crisis, and will have a very detrimental impact on Europe’

 
A Trump-led US would undermine much of this peaceful coexistence, initially by trying to compel Ukraine to sue for ‘peace‘ with Russia and demand that European members of NATO do more for their own defence. J D Vance, Trumps choice as VP, has previously suggested a peace deal for Ukraine could involve freezing the lines of territorial division ‘somewhere close to where they are right now‘ and guaranteeing Kyiv’s independence ‘but also its neutrality‘. That would be defeat for Ukraine and victory for Putin. 

Speaking on the fringes of the Republican national convention, the British ambassador to Washington, Karen Pierce, said: ‘What we are talking about is not just security in Ukraine but for NATO’s partners. If Putin is seen to win in Ukraine, that emboldens China, which directly affects the US. 

‘It also sets back European security 30 years, right back to the fall of the Berlin Wall, and I don’t think anyone wants that, and I don’t think the next administration would like the whole of its time in office be dominated by that loss of Euro-Atlantic security.’ 

This is very much what Vance wants, having written that ‘the United States has provided a blanket of security to Europe for far too long. As we watch European power atrophy under an American protectorate. It is reasonable to ask whether our support has made it easier for Europe to ignore its own security.’ 

Whilst this is a fair question, after all WW2 ended 80 years ago, ‘protecting’ US  interests have been at the heart of their policy towards Europe. They were interventionist in Italy to stop communism creeping into ‘Europe’s soft underbelly’, and it suited them to have a potential WW3 with Soviet Russia played-out in Europe.  

Vance’s nomination has unnerved Germany in particular, as he has questioned not only their reliance on the US defence shield, but has also attacked the nation’s economic policies. 

‘You [Germany] are deindustrialising your own country while at the same time saying that Putin must be defeated at all costs. ‘If Putin must be defeated at all costs, then, dear German friends, stop deindustrialising your own country in the name of a ridiculous green energy policy.’ 

Should Trump, as he has promised, impose trade tariffs on European goods, the reappointed European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, already has a counter-strategy ready, built around the importance of the single market to the US. 

Total US investment in the EU is 4x higher than in the Asia-Pacific region. EU foreign direct investment in the US is about 10 times the amount of EU investment in India and China together. A trade war would be disastrous for both sides. 

Trump could, potentially, create an axis of evil, incorporating Russia, India, North Korea, and China, all of which have leaders he admires and has much in-common with. 
 

‘Trump could, potentially, create an axis of evil, incorporating Russia, India, North Korea, and China, all of which have leaders he admires and has much in-common with’

 
Should Trump win then it will be up to Europe to enable Ukraine to achieve something that can plausibly be called victory in 2025 or 2026, and to provide for our own defence. Whilst European countries have  increased their defence spending, Europe is still far from having the collective political will and military means to achieve the first of these objectives on its own, and the second is equally in doubt. Victory for Putin would not only be a tragedy for Ukraine: it would also mean a chronic destabilisation of the European order constructed after 1945, initially only in the west, and extended to central and eastern Europe since 1989. 

The Axis I refer to has sufficient economic and military strength to counterbalance the efforts even of a united west.  

In India, Modi practises ‘multialignment’ (cultivating multiple, shifting ties with different partners in pursuit of your own interests), something we are also seeing from both Serbia and Viktor Orbán’s Hungary. The latter has already discussed a capitulation ‘peace‘ for Ukraine with Putin, Xi and Trump.  

Anyone who has followed this column over the years will now of the high level of disregard that it has for Trump and those in his orbit. 
 

‘the economic tsunami that unleashed is nothing compared to the geopolitical crisis that a second Trump presidency will cause’

 
Like all populists he cares nothing for the people he continues to mislead. He is very much a throwback to the extreme right politics and attitudes we saw in the 1930s, an era that didn’t end too well 

Europe especially has grown weak and had been seduced by ongoing America largesse. Yes, we imported the GFC from them, but the economic tsunami that unleashed is nothing compared to the geopolitical crisis that a second Trump presidency will cause. 

If there is any irony in this situation it is that the fallout from the GFC has led to the ascendency of such an individual. 
 

‘They’ve all come to look for America 

 

All come to look for America’ 

 
Philip has never been coy about sharing his thoughts about The Donald. Facing electoral meltdown, Joe Biden withdrew from the race to the White House in pretty tragic circumstances, but surely questions must be asked as to how the Democrats found themselves so exposed, just 100 days out:

‘As you will read in my first sentence, this is an article driven by events. Although, some parts of it were already planned.

It takes a big person to stand-up and do the right thing. That is exactly what President Biden did yesterday, country before personal ambition, doing whatever is necessary to slay the beast.

Trump by comparison is a midget. In November 2020 when he had clearly lost the election Trump ignored the will of the people, and refused to accept defeat. The insurrection that followed served only to highlight how fragile US democracy has become.

Trump isn’t divisive, he’s a monster. His comments about immigrants and driving them out are little different to those uttered by Hitler in the 1930’s. That anti-immigration policy led to the holocaust.

Yes, we can “tut” and say that was Germany not the US, but there is no difference both were, or are supposedly civilised democracies. Things like this happen for a number of reasons, in Germany the majority weren’t evil racists but they were dragged into a situation where complacency and fear took over.

As I have long written, with racism it isn’t where you start it’s where you stop that matters.

Lyrically, we acknowledge Biden’s dilemma with “Should I Stay, or Should I Go Now” by the Clash. We end somewhat more melodically with Simon and Garfunkel’s “America”.’ Enjoy!

 
@coldwarsteve
 

        

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

Click on the link to see all Brexit Bulletins: