Mr Brightside: After the Party Comes the Reality 

 

“And where will she go and what shall she do
When midnight comes around?
She’ll turn once more to Sunday’s clown
And cry behind the door” 

 

The return of the Trump is still the biggest one in town. Whilst, he has a clear mandate to govern, the differences between the two candidates is both stark and dark

 
Harris based her candidacy on inclusiveness, joy and a new beginnings, an offering that was soundly defeated by a convicted felon spouting racial hatred and sexism, including accusing immigrants of “poisoning the blood” of America and calling his opponent a “bitch” and “dumb as a rock”. 

In “Darklands”, my initial analyse of the election result, I speculated about the impact of inequality on voters decisions.  

Decades of widening wealth gaps have created two mutually reinforcing realities. Firstly there is the billionaire problem. The ultra-rich have amassed a level of wealth that gives them unparalleled political influence. From their unconstrained election spending to their direct control over much of the media, they have never had an environment more conducive for concentrating their power. 

Inequality has also created the conditions that have millions of Americans quite rightfully feeling that the political system is failing them. Trump’s policies aren’t going to help the working-class and poor — they’re far more likely to hurt them — but voters have clearly decided that the status quo badly needed upending. 
 

‘millions of Americans quite rightfully feeling that the political system is failing them’

 
This imbalance worsened in the aftermath of the result, as the wealth of the 10 richest people in the world (predominantly US tech billionaires” increased by C.$64bn (about £49.5bn), according to The Bloomberg Billionaires Index. 

Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, registered the largest increase with a $26.5bn addition to his fortune, which now stands at $290bn. The prominent backer of Trump’s campaign, benefited from a surge in the share price of Tesla, the electric carmaker where he is chief executive and in which he owns a 13% stake. 

Much of the gains for the top 10 was because of a surge in US stocks on Wednesday as investors anticipated a low-tax and regulation-light policy platform.  

The only loser was the French luxury goods tycoon Bernard Arnault, whose fortune decreased by nearly $3bn, I assume due to concerns over the impact of tariffs on LVMH’s US business. 

In addition, to inequality, much has been made of Trump’s popularity with young male voters, typically aged 18-29. It would appear that they are having trouble reconciling with more liberal young women. In this age group, Trump won 56% of the vote compared to Harris’ 42%, conversely among young women preferred Harris won 58% and Trump to 40%. These young men, especially those without a college degree, have expressed feeling unfulfilled, dissatisfied with their jobs and lives, and desirous of a society and home life with traditional gender roles. For years, media outlets have documented how more and more young men have been radicalized after consuming content from right-leaning entertainers and commentators, especially on platforms like YouTube and Twitch. Now, as more of those men have reached voting age, this phenomenon appears to be benefiting Trump and the far right. 
 

‘as more of those men have reached voting age, this phenomenon appears to be benefiting Trump and the far right’

 
Research published in 2021 found that a leading predictor of support for Trump – over party affiliation, gender, race and education level – was belief in “hegemonic masculinity”, defined as believing that men should be in positions of power, be “mentally, physically, and emotionally tough”, and reject anything considered feminine or gay. Some heterodox influencers gained a following by embodying or promoting precisely this brand of masculinity, and giving their followers a script for blaming dissatisfaction on women. 

Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2020589118 

Heterodox is derived from the Greek heteros, meaning other, and doxa, meaning opinion, and is well-matched by hyper-masculine stance and attitudes of Trump.  

An example of this is Nico Kenn De Balinthazy, better known by his YouTube moniker Sneako, who supported Bernie Sanders in 2016 before switching his allegiance to Trump, could be seen trying to provoke the people around him, gloating as the results came in. He loudly laughed at one woman who was crying. The day before the election, he had posted on X: “Kamala Harris is proof that women shouldn’t vote.” 

The issue of immigration cannot be overlooked as it was a long-standing objective of the Trump campaign, with the promise to deport up to 15 million undocumented immigrants. Trump’s re-election heralds a return to the White House of loyalist henchman Stephen Miller, architect of his first-term immigration ban on Muslims and new, equally extreme proposals including the ending of birthright citizenship for children born to undocumented immigrants, and the narrowing of pathways to naturalization. 

What then, will Trump  2.0 do? Will he, as promised, solve the Ukraine war in 24-hours, by terminating US military assistance for Kyiv? Or will he tell Putin to back-off? A similar fear extends to Gaza, with Trump’s victory seen as a win for Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Taiwan will be staring down the barrel of a Chinese gun. Liberal democracies everywhere, Britain included, will also come under fresh siege from their own Trump imitators, powered by the rumour mill that is social media. 
 

‘Will he, as promised, solve the Ukraine war in 24-hours, by terminating US military assistance for Kyiv? Or will he tell Putin to back-off?’

 
Nato allies of the US, meanwhile, fear the next move of a man who has cozied up to adversary dictators including Viktor Orbán, Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin, and encouraged Russia to “do whatever the hell they wanted” to countries who were behind on Nato dues. 

Trump 2.0 seems almost certain to end the post-1945 Pax Americana, which, in reality, has been disintegrating since at least the Vietnam conflict. What followed was George W Bush’s “war on terror” which caused more problems than it solved, whilst Obama and Biden were each reluctant to be the world’s policeman. 

Along with foreign policy, the climate crisis will be an also-ran as international relations become more transactional. Trump, who has called the climate emergency “a big hoax”, has said he will once again remove the US from the Paris climate agreement and dismantle Biden’s climate agenda, actions experts say could “reverberate for a million years”. His promises to ramp up oil production and burn more fossil fuels, to “drill, baby, drill”, as well as weakening regulatory powers or eliminating agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 

In addition, other countries the broader impact that Trump’s victory create. Governments and traditional parties need to understand the digital-era power of Trump’s nationalist, protectionist and resentment-fuelled messages, and consider how best they deal with it. We, in Farage, have our own Trump ready, willing, and waiting for the opportunity. 
 

‘Trump, who has called the climate emergency “a big hoax”, has said he will once again remove the US from the Paris climate agreement and dismantle Biden’s climate agenda’

 
Starmer needs to face up to the reality of both widening economic inequality and the fear of migration that drove Trump’s re-election. 

Attention also needs to focus on the so-called special relationship and being a pound-shop USA. The situation in Ukraine and a possible trade war are very real, and need to be dealt with dispassionately rather than expecting special treatment. 

This special relationship has been on life support for years, based on America taking and giving instructions and us behaving like a besotted spaniel.  

This is a good time for a wake-up call. We are essentially a secular society. Do we want to be aligned with a nation whose religious fervour leads it to outlaw women’s reproductive rights and, in some cases, to see Trump as a leader sent by God to save the US from socialism?  

Recent polls in the UK prove this; only 21% of British adults thought Trump’s victory would be “a good thing”. Another poll found that 61% backed Kamala Harris against 16% for Trump. And remember, Britain is very much in line with other European countries on all this. 

Given all this, there is a logic for us to move closer to Europe, even if it will cause our own Trump palpitations. After all, with Trump’s America first policy, with either standalone or look to strengthen ties with our closest neighbour. This needn’t mean revisiting Brexit, we are already seeing sign of the governments pragmatic reset with Europe on defence, trade and security.
 

‘We, in Farage, have our own Trump ready, willing, and waiting for the opportunity’

 
Nato aside, Europe has much at risk as a result of a resurgent Trump. Politically, illiberal nationalists are already enjoying  electoral success and his return will only embolden them. Then there is the threat of a transatlantic trade war, and a battle over European regulation of US social media platforms, AI and cryptocurrencies. 

Moreover, Europe is at risk of being squeezed in a deepening US-China trade conflict, with the prospect of coming under severe pressure from Washington to curtail economic ties with Beijing, while facing a potential flood of cheap Chinese goods diverted by prohibitive tariffs from the US market. 

All of this at a time when Europe is already fragile. Their economies already lag behind the US and China in innovation, investment and productivity. Germany and France are weakened by political crises. Right-wing populists, playing on fears of globalisation and migration, are on the rise across Europe, too. # 

The Polish PM, Donald Tusk, one of the EU’s few strong centre-right leaders, said that “the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over”. Europe needed to finally grow up and believe in its own strength. He is not alone in this, France has long been pushing for such “strategic autonomy”, while the majority of EU countries remain wary of anything that could weaken the transatlantic bond. 

EU countries conduct trade policy together, so the European Commission has had a back-room team preparing for a possible Trump return for weeks, readying ways to respond if necessary in any tariff dispute. But it is far from clear whether the commissions’ President, Ursula von der Leyen, will be able to marshal the 27 EU states behind a common line. There are fears that some member states might break ranks in an attempt to curry favour with the White House, as they seek to secure better terms, perhaps in exchange for buying more US weapons. 
 

‘the incoming US president is obsessed with the imbalance in goods trade with Europe, and especially with German cars’

 
Von der Leyen reminded Trump in a congratulatory message that “millions of jobs and billions in trade and investment on each side of the Atlantic depend on the dynamism and stability of our economic relationship”. But the incoming US president is obsessed with the imbalance in goods trade with Europe, and especially with German cars. 

In some ways being forced to stand on our own two-feet is a good thing, its high time we did. If all those nationalists out there want to revisit their dream of Pax Brittania, then this is their moment. 

Personally, I thought a bit more Hugh Grant in “Love Actually” might have served Starmer better than his somewhat toadying comments: “We stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise. I know the special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come”. Well done, might have sufficed. 

More amusingly, there is the foreign secretary, David Lammy, who, six years ago, when he was a backbencher, called the then and now future US president “a woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath” and “a profound threat to the international order”.   
 

‘David Lammy….called the then and now future US president “a woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath” and “a profound threat to the international order”’

 
Whilst he has never recanted those views, he now feels obliged to assert that the British government “will agree and align on much” with the Trump regime. Such a shame, his comments from six years ago were on the money. 

Whatever we might think, Trump is in total ascendency, winning the electoral college, the popular vote, control of the Senate, and the House of Representatives.  

In 2017, when Trump 1.0 was first elected, there was no clear plan, he was unfamiliar with how government worked and seasoned operators in the administration managed to contain some of his darkest instincts. This time, he says he knows what to do with his mandate and will pack his government with true believers faithful only to his bidding. As such, we must that Trump 2.0 will pursue the nativist, protectionist and unilateralist agenda of “America first” with even more belligerence and even less delicacy towards the opinions and interests of historical allies. 
 

“Now the party’s over, I’m so tired
Then I see you coming, out of nowhere” 

 

‘So, that’s that for another 4-yrs. Like it or not, wrongly or rightly the American people have chosen.

For the religious, and the racists this will be nirvana. For those worn down by inequality, too bad, you’re a turkey who voted for Christmas, it won’t get better. it will get worse.

The facts, however, can’t be ignored; C. 40% of Americans say they have skipped meals in order to meet their housing payments, and > 70% admit to living with economic anxiety.

But, Trump’s victory is symptomatic of a bigger issue, the rise of the hard-right.

Clearly, a great deal of people do not like the political left. In the UK, that is part of the reason for Brexit, why Nigel Farage is back, and why our new Labour government feels so flimsy and fragile. In the US, it goes some way to explaining why more than 75 million voters just rejected the supposedly progressive option, and chose a convicted criminal and proud insurrectionist to govern them.

Since the GFC elections have proved that the left is alienating huge chunks of its old voter-base. What we are seeing is the decline of political loyalties based around class: compared with 2008, 2024’s Democratic coalition was skewed towards the higher end of the income range, whereas Trump’s tilted in the other direction.

The same is true of ethnically based political loyalties: as Trump has proved there are large numbers of voters from minorities – and immigrant backgrounds – who largely accept right-wing ideas about immigration. That is partly because modern economies create such competition for rewards.

Polling suggests that “government should increase border security and enforcement” is supported by higher percentages of black and Hispanic voters than among white progressives – but the same applies to “most people can make it if they work hard” and “America is the greatest country in the world”. Growing chunks of the electorate are not who the left think they are.

Added to this is the widening political gap based around people’s education levels – voters without college degrees supported Trump by a 14-point margin, while Harris had a 13-point advantage among college-educated people. Some of this might be to do with “wokeness” and its drawbacks. Because the cutting edge of left politics is often associated with institutions of higher education, ideas that are meant to be about inclusivity can easily turn into the opposite.

These are the lessons that Labour needs to learn before it’s too late.

Lyrically, we start with the Velvet Underground’s “All Tomorrow’s Parties” to symbolise that morning after feeling. We finish with “Avalon” by Roxy Music.

Enjoy!

Philip
 
@coldwarsteve
 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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