Mr Brightside: Agent Orange(1) 

 

“Rip it up and start again
I hope to God you’re not as dumb as you make out” 

 

Chemically modified; this can be the only explanation for the orange colour of the US president elect

 
This week we consider three things; what a Trump presidency might mean? Could it work? What might it mean for the UK? 

What might Trump’s presidency bring forth? It is reported that it will be based on Project 2025 which has been created by Kevin Roberts, the head of the influential right-wing thinktank the Heritage Foundation. Project 2025 is the infamous right-wing plan for Trump’s presidency, founded on cracking down on immigration, dismantling LGBTQ+ and abortion rights and diminishing environmental protections 

Roberts, seen as one of the masterminds of the conservative blueprint which could change the shape of the US government. Roberts, who said earlier this year that the US was “in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be”, is a highly influential figure on the right. 

Roberts has previously written that “many of America’s institutions […] need to be burned”. Included among those to be incinerated are the FBI and the New York Times, along with “every Ivy League college”, “80% of ‘Catholic’ higher education”, and the Boy Scouts of America. 
 

‘cracking down on immigration, dismantling LGBTQ+ and abortion rights and diminishing environmental protections’

 
Helping put this madness into practise will be Elon Musk and the former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the newly created Department of Government Efficiency, which, despite its name, will not be a government agency. Trump has said that Musk and Ramaswamy will work from outside government to offer the White House “advice and guidance” and will partner with the Office of Management and Budget to “drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to government never seen before.” 

Trump said the duo “will pave the way for my administration to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies”. 

There is an insidious benefit for both, as because they will not be federal employees they will not be required  to disclose their assets and entanglements leaving both open to potential conflicts. 

One area that the British media has underplayed is woman and woman’s rights. 

Within hours of Trumps re-election, the far-right slogan “Your body, my choice”, tweeted by white nationalist pundit and organiser Nick Fuentes, spread online and off, sparking waves of abuse against women. “You no longer have rights” was one of many similar messages addressed to women by extreme misogynist Andrew Tate, who is facing trial for rape and human trafficking charges in Romania. (He denies these charges.) Meanwhile, calls for the creation of “rape squads” emerged in far-right groups. 

This is yet more proof that there is a generation of men that don’t like woman, who see them as inferior creatures to be coerced.  
 

“Your body, my choice”

 
These, mainly younger men, are part of a male supremacist ideology that has become mainstream, promoted by manosphere entrepreneurs who are thriving in the attention economy by feeding young men’s resentment towards women. Many have grown up on a diet of misogynistic content, and embrace authoritarian strongmen who court them with promises to take away women’s rights. Young women, on the other hand, increasingly favour liberal politics. 

We now turn to whether Trumpism can work. If it does there are considerable implications for the UK. 

Whatever we might think, Trump was elected largely because a majority of Americans like him as a person. They see themselves in him; they shared his enemies, his faults were overlooked because his vulnerabilities seemed as genuine as his authenticity. 

His success mirrors that of our own populists, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage  as with their success the electorate has been upended. Yesterday’s typical Republicans of the conservative bourgeoisie voted Democrat. Trumps voters were the poor, the under-educated, provincial, male, and minority groups. This is the US version of Labour’s red wall voting Tory. 

Trump now has to deliver in a way that Johnson couldn’t after his 2019 election success. Trump needs to tackle inflation and protect his supporters’ jobs and their incomes. This could be a challenge as his promised tariffs will be inflationary. His supposed attack on immigration may not see him rounding up and deporting millions of families, instead he will have to talk to Mexico and the rest of Latin America on border policing, as Britain must talk with the rest of Europe. Border security has become a global challenge. 
 

‘Trumps voters were the poor, the under-educated, provincial, male, and minority groups. This is the US version of Labour’s red wall voting Tory’

 
With hindsight, 2008 and the GFC and its uneven recovery marked the decline of the old economic order. But in 2016, the rise of Trump on the right and Bernie Sanders on the left highlighted a real shift, as neoliberalism was ousted by previously marginalised ideas. 

Since then, two US presidencies have acknowledged the need to rebuild an economy that supports blue-collar workers affected by free trade, immigration and globalisation. Neither succeeded, resulting in a growing constituency on both sides of the American political divide that takes seriously, albeit often rhetorically, economic injustice. But for any political movement to become dominant, it has to shape the core ideas that matter to everyone, not just its diehard supporters. 

“Protectionism” is now a bipartisan issue, with Joe Biden upholding Trump’s tariffs on China, and both presidents encouraged US companies to reshore manufacturing. Industrial policy, missing since the 1990s, and antitrust actions now find advocates on both sides of the aisle. Both Trump and Harris gauged voters’ indifference to near-trillion-dollar deficits, promising on the campaign trail to protect social security and Medicare.  

Biden fell short of delivering the transformation, as his ambitious plans were shrunk by lobbying by corporate interests and resistance from centrist Democrats. Nonetheless, his promises to tackle inequality, improve public services and address the climate crisis with a $4tn plan funded by taxing the wealthy – a mission to unite social liberalism with economic fairness.  

The final nail in the coffin of his plans was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which caused Biden to retreat from economic radicalism. When inflation surged, instead of controlling prices, he allowed the cost of essentials to soar, causing the steepest food-price hike since the 1970s. In 2022, the poorest 20% of Americans spent nearly a third of their income on food, while the wealthiest fifth spent just 8%.  
 

‘The final nail in the coffin of his plans was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which caused Biden to retreat from economic radicalism’

 
Trump’s populist rhetoric resonated with disillusioned voters, yet his first term’s policies had often mirrored the establishment he criticised, blending and betraying the US’s pro-market ideals. His deregulation, judicial appointments, and tax cuts were classic neoliberalism, whereas his assault on free trade and immigration were the polar opposite. Trump presents free trade and open borders as threats to US prosperity, advocating for strict controls that admit only goods and people aligned with American interests. 

He has also abandoned the neoliberal tradition of shielding markets from direct political influence, openly using his power to favour allies and enrich elites. While centrist Democrats support corporate interests by blocking progressive reforms, Trump aligns directly with billionaires, promoting a culture where justice serves the wealthy, prejudice is trivialised and power diminishes equality. This trickle-down bigotry will ultimately create a system where servility to power and social division become normalised, eroding fairness for everyone. 
 

‘This trickle-down bigotry will ultimately create a system where servility to power and social division become normalised’

 
The question is can Trump mobilise popular discontent over social and economic inequalities without alienating the oligarchs who support him? Factions are already becoming clear; economic populists such as the Republican senator Josh Hawley and the vice-president-elect, JD Vance, will differ from libertarians such as Vivek Ramaswamy and the self-interested deregulatory agenda of Elon Musk. Trump’s aim isn’t to lift all boats, but rather to lift enough to convince voters to tolerate the corruption, consumer scams and environmental degradation that enrich a plutocratic class. This strategy, boosted by a pliant mediasphere, enables him to present a party of private power as the voice of the ordinary voter. 

Finally, what might all of this mean for the UK? 

We pride ourselves on the special relationship with the US, which will be an early test as Trump considers trade tariffs. Might we be the beneficiaries of special treatment? Or, might we have been better off without Brexit which has nullified our relationship with Europe,  who might be better placed in a trade war as they have the benefit of being a collective. 

This is will be an immediate area of conflict between the government and the Conservatives. The new Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch has said that a Trump presidency represents a “golden opportunity” to approve a US-UK trade deal negotiated the last time he was in the White House. Obviously, she prefer this to restoring links with the EU. There is one problem, no such US trade deal exists, primarily because the US insisted that any deal included allowing US chlorinated chicken and hormone-injected beef, which would wreck Britain’s livestock industry. 

However, the inescapable truth is that the government need to start delivering on their promises 
 

‘the inescapable truth is that the government need to start delivering on their promises’

 
Perhaps, the recent budget has given Labour an identity. There are signs that this might turn into a Labour budget, seeking to stem the problems of the last 45-yrs as stopping the  flow of money from workers, by taking from bosses and capital owners while lifting the minimum wage, creating a steep graph that shows the rich paying most, the poorest least. Here there is an issue between intent and execution; the increase in employers NIC will impact the lowest paid as business seeks to pass on the cost to consumers wherever possible. 

Nonetheless, introducing VAT for private school fees, raising capital gains tax for the very richest, and stopping Non-doms seeing the UK as a tax haven can be seen as redistributive. The fact that farmland has become another tax shelter was wrong, and , hopefully a £3m nil-rate band will help genuine farmers manage the changes to inheritance tax. It should be noted that farmers are “still better treated than anyone in terms of inheritance tax”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. 

The popular media are biased towards the Tories, which is why reporting of the budget has been so negative. Voters, many of whom have experienced stagnant or falling incomes since 2008, understand this unfairness by instinct, if not in numbers. Capital gains were in people’s top three choices for tax increases, alongside VAT on private school fees. Taxes on air travel and on energy and waste are not far behind. Those who earn more than £75,000 a year and second-home owners top the list of those who should pay most. Paul Lewis, presenter of BBC Radio 4’s Money Box, finds people are in favour of inheritance tax on farms when they hear the facts. YouGov finds the only item in the budget the majority rejects is the £1 rise in bus fares. 

Whilst inequality resembles an iceberg, people are becoming more aware, which perhaps explains the anti-politics mood. Despite this the government seems reluctant to talk about social justice, and seem almost frightened to voice their egalitarian instincts which would resonate strongly with most people.  
 

‘the government seems reluctant to talk about social justice, and seem almost frightened to voice their egalitarian instincts’

 
This weeks proposed NHS reforms are equally wide of the mark. After Covid and deprivations of 14-yrs of Tory austerity, the big NHS plan is naming and shaming? Complete with inflammatory language that’s designed to scapegoat staff, such as the bad managers you’ve branded the NHS’s “guilty secret”?  

The health minister, Wes Streeting, insists the new public rankings are a necessary way of stamping out poor performance, which is to be judged on quantifiable factors such as A&E waits, cancer care and the size of their budget deficits. Trusts will be publicly ranked from best to worst, with the CEOs of the worst offenders facing dismissal. Meanwhile, the best-performing trusts will be rewarded with extra money to buy new equipment or repair facilities, further skewing the playing field, and creating more inequality not less! 

Really, this is counterproductive that it beggars belief.  

Streeting himself is the first to acknowledge the impact of structural inequalities on health, recognising that disadvantaged groups in British society are at greater risk of ill health and premature death. Yet his return to hospital league tables presumes that underperformance is all the fault of the “bad managers” rather than the socioeconomic realities caused by inequality. He seems unaware of uncaring of the fact that hospital performance is intricately bound up with the availability (or not) of social care in a region, the prevalence of poverty, the availability of staff, local unemployment levels and innumerable other factors beyond senior hospital managers’ control. 
 

‘They may congratulate themselves on facing a pound shop Reform in the shape of Badenoch’s Tories, but the real enemy is Reform’

 
Indeed this idea is nothing new, hospital league tables were introduced in 2001 by Alan Milburn, then Tony Blair’s health secretary, and scrapped in 2005. Ironically, Milburn is now Streeting’s top adviser at the Department of Health. Maybe he needs to see a doctor as he appears to be suffering from the definition of insanity attributed to Einstein; “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”. 

Labour might have a thumping majority and a 5-yr term but time passes quickly. They may congratulate themselves on facing a pound shop Reform in the shape of Badenoch’s Tories, but the real enemy is Reform.  

Should Trump’s polices show sign of working and Labour continues to disappoint Reform is the elephant in the room. If the US election has anything to teach Labour, it’s this: in a raucous social media world, be bold. 
 

“She spends her life through pleasing up her man
She feeds him dinner or anything she can
She cries alone at night too often
He smokes and drinks and don’t come home at all” 

 
Notes: 

1. Agent Orange is a chemical herbicide and defoliant, one of the tactical use Rainbow Herbicides. It was used by the U.S. military as part of its herbicidal warfare program, Operation Ranch Hand, during the Vietnam War from 1961 to 1971. 

 
A cracking article from Philip, and a weighty preamble, that would be improved not one jot by comment from me!

‘As Trump starts to assemble his government it is looking more and more like the Mad Hatters Tea Party

His decision to nominate the far-right Republican congressman Matt Gaetz as attorney general has sent shockwaves through Washington, including the president-elect’s own party.

“I don’t think it’s a serious nomination for the attorney general,” Republican senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, told NBC News. “We need to have a serious attorney general. And I’m looking forward to the opportunity to consider somebody that is serious. This one was not on my bingo card.”

A right-wing firebrand, Gaetz has been investigated by the justice department in a sex-trafficking case, though the department ultimately declined to bring charges. And was under investigation by the House ethics committee amid allegations of sexual misconduct, illicit drug use and other alleged ethical breaches.

If that was bad enough, the nomination of Robert F Kennedy Jr as US secretary of health and human services has prompted widespread criticisms. Kennedy is an anti-vaccine activist who has embraced a slew of other debunked health-related conspiracy theories.

In a Truth Social post on Thursday, Trump claimed that Americans have been “crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies” and that Kennedy “will restore these Agencies to the traditions of Gold Standard Scientific Research, and beacons of Transparency, to end the Chronic Disease epidemic, and to Make America Great and Healthy Again!”

In response to Kennedy’s nomination, Public Citizen, a progressive nonprofit organization focusing on consumer advocacy, said: “Robert F Kennedy Jr is a clear and present danger to the nation’s health. He shouldn’t be allowed in the building at the department of health and human services (HHS), let alone be placed in charge of the nation’s public health agency.”

Staying with the theme of the Mad Hatter,

Shadow chancellor Stride: ‘there must be no suggestion of going back into single market or customs union’

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride has said that there must be no suggestion of the UK going back into the EU single market or customs union, but said the Labour government should be doing everything to “facilitate trade” with what he said was “our biggest trading partner.”

Speaking on Sky News this morning in the wake of weak GDP figures, Stride was highly critical of what he said was Labour talking down the economy, and suggested there were opportunities to grow trade elsewhere.

Asked about chancellor Rachel Reeves and governor of the Bank of England mentioning Brexit as a factor holding back economic growth, Stride told viewers:

“I think that the EU is our biggest trading partner, so of course, anything that we can do to facilitate trade between ourselves, that still respects the result of the British people in 2016 is to be welcomed. So there must be no suggestion of going back into the single market or the customs union.”

Stride then said that trade arrangements about phytosanitary and veterinary issues “were important”. He continued:

“But we also need to look also need to look more broadly across the globe.

As global Britain, we as a government bought in 72 different free trade agreements, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a part of the world and a collection of countries that collectively are a bigger market than the EU and growing faster than the EU.

And of course, there will be opportunities potentially with the new administration in America to look at a US-UK trade deal as well.

So we’ve got to look beyond Europe as well as maximising the opportunities of that relationship [with the EU].”

It’s somehow reassuring that despite all the evidence to the contrary, there are still believers in the Brexit cause. Perhaps being continually in denial is a strength after all?

In contrast to Mel, The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, has urged ministers to “rebuild relations” with the EU, warning that Brexit has undermined the UK’s economy.

Speaking at the Mansion House dinner in the City of London, Bailey said he took no position on Brexit “per se”, but added: “I do have to point out consequences.”

He said Brexit had “weighed” on the economy, pointing out in particular the impact of Brexit on the UK’s trade in goods. “It underlines why we must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations while respecting the decision of the British people,” he added.

Musically, in recognition of the first orange president we start with Orange Juice and “Rip it Up”, which might be how the Trump presidency is remembered. And for all those young misogynists who clearly are intimidated by women we play out with Alice Cooper’s “Only Women Bleed”, a song made famous by our own Julie Covington.

Enjoy! Philip.’

 
@coldwarsteve

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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