Jul
2024
Mr Brightside: Oh Dear!
DIY Investor
27 July 2024
“All the dreams were held so close
Seemed to all go up in smoke”
After the weekends momentous events in the US, I had been struggling to find things to cover, especially closer to home. After the torturous excitement and mis-steps of the Tories, Labour seemed impossibly dull!
Then…… Mr Brightside reverted to being Light Blue Kier; not once, but twice.
Firstly, there was last weeks decision not to intervene in the sentences handed down to four Just Stop Oil activists.
Daniel Shaw, Louise Lancaster, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu and Cressida Gethin were each sentenced to 4- years in prison last week after being found guilty of planning disruptive, but non-violent protests on the M25. A fifth defendant, Roger Hallam, was sentenced to five years.
The government is now facing growing pressure to reverse the previous administration’s “hardline anti-protest” approach.
A UN special rapporteur for environmental defenders, Michel Forst, joined a growing chorus of voices condemning the sentences handed down. Forst, whose role is to protect individuals facing penalisation, persecution, or harassment for exercising their environmental rights, attended two days of the trial earlier this month as he attempted to intervene with UK authorities on behalf of Shaw, called the jail terms “punitive and repressive”.
“Even if we are talking about a disruptive form of protest, and there is no denying that, it is still entirely non-violent and it should have been treated as such. For me, for my team, it’s not acceptable in a democracy like the UK.
“The second element is that it’s a very dangerous ruling, not only for environmental protesters, but also for the right to protest as such, because we understand now that those who would like to go to the street to demonstrate, to organise a rally, they would consider twice before going out.
“That’s a deterrent for the right to protest in the UK.”
A spokesperson for the attorney general’s office said: “Decisions to prosecute, convict and sentence are, rightly, made independently of government by the Crown Prosecution Service, juries and judges respectively. The attorney general has no power to intervene.”
Whilst I understand the delineation between government and the courts, this is a bad law that needs to at the very least amended, or, ideally, repealed
‘Mr Brightside reverted to being Light Blue Kier; not once, but twice’
There might, however, be some redemption for Mr Brightside if the home secretary, Yvette Cooper abandons the law that criminalised peaceful protests
Civil group Liberty has adjourned legal hearing over contentious legislation to allow talks with ministers to open.
Liberty won a legal challenge against the Home Office in May over the regulations passed by statutory instrument last year by Suella Braverman.
In that judgment, Lord Justice Green and Mr Justice Kerr said the government had overreached in defining “serious disruption” as merely “more than minor” and that it had been wrong to consult only with law enforcement agencies about the repercussions of the change.
The quashing of the measures had been suspended pending an appeal, however, which was due to be held in London on Tuesday.
On Monday, Liberty said its lawyers had agreed to adjourn the hearing before talks with the Home Office, now overseen by Cooper, to “find a resolution in the case”.
Starmer’s second own goal was the decision to suspend 7 of his MPs for voting against the government and supporting the SNP’s proposal to scrap the two-child benefit cap.
Suspended the seven, which include the former shadow chancellor John McDonnell, has not be well received by some in the party, and was the culmination of a concerted MPs who voted with the government whipping operation, designed to send a signal to new MPs about rebelling early in the parliament.
This looks a disproportionate reaction. Even though Boris Johnson suspended multiple Brexit rebels in 2019, which was rightly seen as an aberration, he did nothing when 5-Tory MPs backed a Labour motion extending free school meals in 2020. In 1997, when 47 Labour MPs rebelled over a cut to the lone parent benefit, Tony Blair never resorted to such petty authoritarianism.
When Starmer stood for leader, he promised to scrap the limit, which imposes poverty on 300,000 kids, and drives another 700,000 further into hardship. Fifty-nine per cent of families affected have at least one parent in work.
What makes this even more disappointing is that the estimated cost of scrapping the cap is £1.7bn, a pittance given annual government expenditure is £1.2tr. despite this we are told the money isn’t available
Whereas, Starmer was quite happy to promise Ukraine £3bn a year “for as long as it takes”. Which suggest that there is money available, and Ukraine is of greater priority than child poverty in his own county.
‘Ukraine is of greater priority than child poverty in his own county’
The benefit cap was always a cruel piece of legislation. In 2015 it was challenged in court on the basis that the cap was discriminatory and unfair; lawyers argued that the cuts violated human rights laws and had a disproportionate effect on women, especially those seeking to escape violent partners.
Although the supreme court did not find the cap unlawful, the court found that the effect of the policy was not compatible with the government’s obligations under the UN convention on the rights of the child (UNCRC).
It found the secretary of state for work and pensions, Iain Duncan Smith, had failed to “show how the cap was compatible with his obligation to treat the best interests of children as a primary consideration”.
Kim Johnson, the Labour MP for Liverpool Riverside said she decided to vote with the government “for unity”, but had previously submitted her own amendment that was not selected. Speaking in the chamber on Monday, she said her constituency was now the most deprived in the country, with 47% of children now living in poverty.
“It is not a question of whether we can afford to adopt vital policies to alleviate child poverty, such as lifting the two-child cap; it is a question of whether we can afford not to,” she told the House of Commons, saying her focus was “debate not division”.
After the vote, she stressed on X: “We moved the dial. The campaign will continue … The massive strength of feeling is undeniable. It must be a priority for our first budget.”
‘very disappointing for a government committed to change; scrapping this evil law should have been a priority’
All in all very disappointing for a government committed to change; scrapping this evil law should have been a priority. The fact that 1.6m children are negatively impacted by it should be sufficient for Starmer and Reeves to act.
Of course, it should be noted that both errant pieces of legislation were originated by Tory governments, and perhaps I am expecting too much if all their misjudgements are to be corrected in such short order.
One that has already bitten the dust is the frankly preposterous Rwanda offshoring scheme, with the home secretary formally notifying the Rwandan government that the partnership was over and thanked them for working with the UK “in good faith”.
The home secretary revealed that the Tories had spent £700m of taxpayers’ money on the failed Rwanda deportation scheme, which has proved to be a “costly con”. She went on to describe the policy, as “the biggest waste of taxpayer money I have ever seen”.
She has clearly forgotten the PPE scandal and there is no trace of “Track and Trace”; probably C.$30bn wated there!
Cooper told the Commons that over the course of six years ministers had intended to spend £10bn on the policy, but they never divulged this figure to parliament.
Ultimately, just four people travelled to Rwanda voluntarily under the scheme, Cooper told the Commons. “We had often warned that it would frankly be cheaper to put them up in the Paris Ritz – frankly now it turns out it would actually be cheaper to buy the Paris Ritz.”
Clearly, Starmer’s majority is such that it implies a two-terms mandate, however the same was said of Johnson in 2019, and that didn’t materialise. Of course, Johnson was massively impacted by Covid, and it is hard to tell what might have been the outcome had there had been no pandemic.
‘Starmer’s majority is such that it implies a two-terms mandate’
Starmer has the opportunity to deliver his promised “decade of national renewal”, but he needs to avoid the pitfalls that other Starmer-like centre-left leaders of recent years who enjoyed brief honeymoons, then fallen behind right-wing populists in the polls. These centrist administrations were supposed to restore sanity, pragmatism and competence to western politics, and in the process reduce populism to a passing fad, instead they became brief, relatively calm interludes in an era of dogma and acrimony.
A pattern seems to be developing where centrists and populists alternate in office. Meanwhile the climate crisis, the housing crisis and other huge problems that require consistency from successive governments worsen further.
Ironically, what Starmer needs to deliver most is somewhat nebulous; restoring peoples trust in politicians. Sounds easy, but it isn’t. What’s required?
Well, avoiding sleaze and corruption, delivering on promises, and governing for the majority rather than a privileged few.
‘what Starmer needs to deliver most is somewhat nebulous; restoring peoples trust in politicians’
Perhaps the Brexit vote in 2016 was the ultimate expression of despair (especially from older people) against modernity and the bewildering forces of change. Today, there are many that see the “leave” vote as a mistake, it was almost like a regrettable cry for help.
The red wall possibly sums-up the frustrations of those left behind. Traditionally Labour, the perception that the party only served the Londoncentric progressive elites drove them first to support Leave and then the Tories in 2019. Turning Tory simply delivered more disenchantment, and saw them return home to Labour in June.
Today it feels like both parties are in the last chance saloon, with Farage and Reform the elephant in the room.
‘Perhaps the Brexit vote in 2016 was the ultimate expression of despair (especially from older people) against modernity and the bewildering forces of change’
Farage, along with failed Tory PMs Johnson and Truss, have been trying to cuddle-up to Trump at the Republican convention, and expound their own versions of Trumpism. Meanwhile, our right-wing press is full of pundits awed by the prospect of Trump’s return, with a Telegraph columnist writing about “A new kind of populist-conservative politics that aggressively pursues prosperity and order may well be the inevitable future of Right-wing politics in the declining West”.
They are simply waiting for the Starmer government’s misstep.
Fortunately, Reform looks what is ….out-of-date, run for the old by the old, posh former Tories. All Cordings mustard-coloured trousers, Barbers, pints and fags, wallowing in nostalgia. Far more threatening would be the new modern incarnation of France’s National Rally, where 28-year-old president, Jordan Bardella, whose catchphrase is “France is disappearing”: along with his 1.5 million TikTok followers, is able to wow millennials and generation Z, and blame immigration and multiculturalism for their problems.
As a country we have made great strides in race relations since the 1960s that it would be foolish to jeopardise them because of inadequate control over immigration.
Immigration is being made an emotive subject by politicians and the right wing media. It is a typical expression of populism; find a scapegoat and make them the cause of all our problems. It feels like the answer is immigration, what’s the question? In fact, fixing things such as inequality, the NHS, and housing would really be the answer, and make immigration a sideshow.
I have often used the term “we are returning to the politics of the 1930s, which is the last time that the far right was so powerful in western democracies. One of the few centre-left governments that survived was in the US, led by Franklin D Roosevelt, whose expansive New Deal were echoed in Labour’s proposals announced in last week’s king’s speech. The New Deal was crucial to FDR’s success and Labour will be little different were crucial to Roosevelt’s success, but so was his rhetoric. In a celebrated 1936 presidential election speech, he said that the forces of “organised money” and the “organised mob” were “unanimous in their hate for me – and I welcome their hatred”. He was re-elected. Starmer may need to be much fiercer towards the populists if he is to manage the same.
“Everybody’s got to learn sometime”
‘As the new government settles into its role, there is the feeling of the first week of a new school year. All finding out, learning what’s new, etc..
It appears that every time a minister turns over a stone a new problem is revealed. Each revelation shows just how the Tories were running the country inexorably into the ground.
I, and others, perhaps are guilty of expecting too much too soon from Labour, but the real world is harsh. The Tories are still in disarray, but there is always the threat of Farage, that is, of course, if he can tear himself away from Trump and the US.
The coming weeks and months will reveal much, but all of us must be patient.
Lyrically, we start with the Stones and “Angie”, it’s just a classic. We finish with something wistful, The Korgis and “Everybody’s Gotta Learn Sometimes.” Enjoy!
Philip
@coldwarsteve
Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.
Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s
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