Mr. Brightside: There’s a new kid in town. Or, is there?

 

 

‘Destiny is calling me 

Open up my eager eyes 

‘Cause I’m Mr. Brightside’ 

 
 
Having long railed against the Tories, this column takes great delight in welcoming a more centrist government. Note, I didn’t say Labour! This is not a ‘real’ Labour government, more a series of centre-left politicians countering the hard-right populism the Tories had morphed into. 

Sir Kier has a seemingly ‘do as you wish’ majority, but when you scratch the surface all isn’t what it seems. Labour won because it is not the Tories and because it appeared not very different from them. As a commentator wrote, ‘Keir Starmer has scooped a Tony Blair-style majority on Jeremy Corbyn-style polling‘. It’s also that this country’s two big parties took their lowest share of votes and seats alike in more than a century. 

Labours’ victory was driven by efficient targeting; the party traded votes from the big cities for those from small towns. A sweeping victory was delivered based on a share of the vote in England up only half a percentage point on 2019. 

Two points become immediate; the Tories lost the election more than Labour actually winning, secondly, the return of Farage to Reform caused the Tories major issues. 
 

‘A sweeping victory was delivered based on a share of the vote in England up only half a percentage point on 2019’

 
The  successes the Conservatives secured in Leave-voting areas after the EU referendum in 2019 election have all been lost. Compared with 2019, support for the Conservatives is down by 12 points in seats where less than 45% voted Leave. In contrast, support for the party is down by 27 points in seats where more than 65% voted Leave. 

The share of the vote achieved by Reform vote was little different than the margin of the Conservatives’ defeat. Whilst not everybody who voted Reform would have otherwise voted Conservative, but they most certainly voted Conservative in 2019.  

Farage, with 4 MPs, will seek to steal the thunder from other opposition parties. There are parallels between him and Johnson; both are performers whose vanity and duplicity only bolsters their aura of authenticity. Their parties are no more than vehicles for their personalities. But Farage is a more menacing character, as is the company he keeps.  
 

‘performers whose vanity and duplicity only bolsters their aura of authenticity’

 
As with all populists, Farage feeds off betrayal and resentment, constantly seeking fresh sources of grievance, the EU, immigration, climate change, to name but a few. He has much in-common with his transatlantic allies such as Steve Bannon and Donald Trump, who referred to him as ‘Mr Brexit’. This, unfortunately, is the spirit he will introduce in Westminster, his most platform to date. 

Whilst his presence has loomed large over the Tories during the last 10-years, it will now divide the Tories who survived the election. Last year, polling suggested that C. 70% of 10 Tory members would welcome Farage into the party; and last month he was the most popular choice to replace Sunak as leader, as a result his presence will cast a long shadow over the Conservatives’ coming leadership election. 

What is perhaps more scary is the shadow he might cast over the Labour government, given that Reform came second to them in many seats.  As a result, Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, Jonathan Reynolds, John Healey: all representing northern towns, all with Reform as their main opposition.  

Farage chose to launch his manifesto in south Wales, and for good reason; Reform ran Labour a strong second in 13 Welsh seats.  

Farage, in common with all populists is good at moaning and identifying problems, but he doesn’t offer solutions. He is quick to highlight the failing NHS, underfunded schools and the housing crisis as key policy concerns, but declares they are all explained by our immigration policy. In short, not a solution, just scapegoats. 
 

‘good at moaning and identifying problems, but he doesn’t offer solutions’

 
Starmer, quite sensibly, did not include immigration on its list of 10-pledges, and he has binned the Rwanda scheme. Immigration was a factor in the election, and was likely largely responsible for much of Reform’s  share of the vote. I have always believed that, deep-down, we are not a racist country, therefore it is hard to imagine immigration becoming an election winning policy. More to the point, is what drives some people to criticise immigration. I believe the key is the failed economic experiment of monetarism / neoliberalism which has heightened income and wealth inequality to a point where populists are able to exploit scapegoats to further their own ends. 

To defeat Reform, Labour needs to control the narrative, looking to their roots, and focusing on equality, promoting rational political discourse, redistributing power and wealth, and effecting a social and economic modernisation. Drastic changes will be required to recreate a society that is fairer, more secure and more prosperous. Within this we need to end the policies of shrinking public services and a tightfisted welfare state, and the aura of deference and tradition that protects elite privilege. 

Within the overall result what is often overlooked is the success of both the LibDems and Greens, especially  in the ‘blue wall.’ 

The Greens, with 4-MPs, more than doubled the number of votes from C. 900,000 in 2019 to C. 1.9 million. Within this, they captured North Herefordshire, which previously had a 25,000 Conservative majority. 

A contributing factor their success was the sewage crisis. 70% of voters supported legal measures to eliminate sewage spills in ecologically sensitive areas by 2030, according to polling conducted for Greenpeace by Survation just before the election. Less than a third of voters thought the Conservatives were right to weaken their commitments on the climate crisis and the environment. 
 

‘Less than a third of voters thought the Conservatives were right to weaken their commitments on the climate crisis and the environment’

 
The Tories lost 37 of the 52 ‘blue wall’ seats in the south of England, with 24 taken by the Liberal Democrats, who campaigned strongly on sewage and the crisis of polluted rivers and beaches. Some of those seats, particularly along the Thames, include spots where some of the worst sewage problems have been reported. 

20% of people in the region told pollsters that the Conservative party’s stance on the environment was a key reason for not voting for them; nationally, 25% of people cited this as a reason. 

The success of both parties, and the fact that both have much stronger environmental policies than Labour, should give Keir Starmer a warning. 

Whilst we might have succeeded in heading off populism for the next 5-years, the same cannot be said for America, where Trumps’ return looms ever larger.  

Last month, Trump held his first ever campaign rally in Philadelphia, the birthplace of American democracy and a Democratic stronghold where Joe Biden won 81.4% of the vote in 2020. 

His message was little different to that of Farage; open borders have allowed thousands of illegal immigrants to pour into America, leading to a surge of violent crime in its major cities, hurting Black and Hispanic populations the most. Only Trump could fix it. 

‘Few communities have suffered more under the Biden regime than Philadelphia,’ he told thousands of supporters. ‘Under Crooked Joe, the City of Brotherly Love is being ravaged by bloodshed and crime.’ 

‘Murders in Philadelphia reached their highest level in six decades. Retail theft in Philly is up 135% since I left office. The convenience stores are closing down left and right. The pharmacies have to lock up the soap … You can’t buy toothpaste, you can’t buy a toothbrush, it takes you 45 minutes.’  

In April the Pew Charitable Trusts’ annual ‘State of the City’ report found that violent crime in Philadelphia is at its lowest level in a decade. The city’s homicide rate dropped six percentage points in 2023, in line with other cities of similar scale. But the number of property crimes did rise sharply over the same period. 

Trump’s message is based on fear and fury, joining the dots between crime and illegal immigration. Something made easier after Republican governors in Texas and Florida chartered buses and planes to send thousands of migrants to Democratic-led cities. Mayors have felt a strain on their resources and growing backlash from voters. 
 

‘Trump’s message is based on fear and fury, joining the dots between crime and illegal immigration’

 
Trump said: ‘Unbelievably Crooked Joe Biden is going around trying to claim that crime is down. Crime is so much up. First of all, we have a new form of crime. It’s called the Biden Migrant Crime, right? And all these millions of people that have come in, they’re just getting warmed up.’ 

In fact last year violent crime fell to one of its lowest levels in more than half a century. FBI statistics show steep drops in every category of violent crime in every region in the first three months of 2024 compared with a year earlier. 

In true populist fashion Trump didn’t let the truth interfere, saying; ‘The FBI crime statistics Biden is pushing are fake. ‘They’re fake just like everything else in this administration.’  

Within this, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Trump himself is a convicted criminal. That aside, his message his sinister and, I believe, his intentions more so. When he was initially elected president there was a ‘joke’ going around giving odds on him achieving a third term. For anyone unfamiliar with the US constitution, post FDR dying during his forth term, President can only serve two-terms. Therefore, for Trump to do so he needs to change the constitution. 

As a result of recent developments, he now has the opportunity to do so, and effectively create a dictatorship. 

Whilst I was on my deckchair, the US supreme court’s ruled on presidential immunity; their decision effectively allows a president to stand above the law.  

The majority ruling, penned by Chief Justice John Roberts, is a disingenuous, bloodless discussion which pompously warns that ‘we cannot afford to fixate exclusively, or even primarily, on present exigencies’. The minority opinion, written by Justice Sonia Sotomayor, is a wake-up call to the electorate: the city. 

The most immediate impact of this is the likely derailing of  the 2020 election-subversion case against Donald Trump.  
 

‘a twice-impeached convicted felon who attempted to overturn the people’s verdict, reveres authoritarians and pledges to be a dictator could soon be re-elected’

 
I know many readers will possibly be tired by my fixation with the rise of the hard-right and the dangers that it brings. However, anyone who doubts how consequential a second Trump administration term would be for the United States and the world need only look to the supreme court, now ruled by a conservative supermajority thanks to three Trump-appointed justices. 

For anyone who doubts what this ruling means, Justice Sotomayor outlined the new limits for a president: ‘Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organises a military coup to hold on to power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune … In every use of official power, the president is now a king above the law.’ 

The reality is stark; a twice-impeached convicted felon who attempted to overturn the people’s verdict, reveres authoritarians and pledges to be a dictator (only ‘on day one‘) could soon be re-elected. 

The court’s ruling grants complete immunity from criminal prosecution to core presidential powers. But it also grants presumptive immunity to other ‘official acts‘, which can be wide-ranging.  For example, pressuring Mike Pence not to certify the 2020 election results would probably enjoy immunity, Chief Justice Roberts writes, because if the president and vice-president are discussing official duties, this is official conduct; and presiding over the results is a constitutional responsibility of the vice-president. 

The terms ‘presumptive’ and ‘presumption’ give a president considerable freedom to manoeuvre, as Justice Sotomayor notes – doing so must pose no danger of intrusion whatsoever on presidential authority. The president’s motives cannot be examined. Nor can official acts be used in criminal cases relating to unofficial acts.  
 

‘there is a new kid in town and this column wishes him every success’

 
This ruling further tarnishes the reputation and impartiality of the supreme court already mired in scandal because of other recent majority rulings, which have delivered a major blow to the regulatory powers of federal agencies and, allowing officials to accept cash or gifts from people they have assisted: they only count as bribes if given before the favour. As a result the court now only serves the rich and powerful. 

Rulings such enable the rich and powerful to which help rentiers to solve its perennial problem caused by democracy, that of oversight.  

In the UK we have seen this in action as entities inclusion the Environment Agency and the Health and Safety Executive have been muted. The same desire was the driving force behind Brexit. They want the cessation of protest. They want a failing NHS, to justify privatisation. They want malleable politicians and a tame BBC. To achieve their aims they pour money into neoliberal and far-right political movements,  

Trump, should be win the presidency now has a platform to create, by legal means, an authoritarian dictatorship, just as the Nazi’s did in the 1930s. 

In the UK, we have a degree of protection from this with the independence of our own supreme court. The value of this was clearly demonstrated in 2019, when the Tories sought to prorogue parliament which stopped them assuming what amounted to dictatorial powers. 

Today, we have the spectre of Farage and Reform, who, will no doubt seek to cause as much trouble for the government as is possible. 

However, there is a new kid in town and this column wishes him every success.  
 

‘The new kid in town 

Everybody loves you 

So don’t let them down’ 

 
After his well-earned rest, Philip has hit his straps and delivered us of a new column as the world enters even more perilous political, social, economic and environmental waters; it may not be pretty, but it will always be hard-hitting, thought-provoking and passionate:

‘This is the first page in this column’s new chapter.

The election analysis does much to highlight the failings of our first-past-the-post electoral system, but the ends justifies the means in this case; a sweeping success for Starmer and Labour, giving them a mandate for change.

What has come out of this is two electoral blokes; the centre left represented by Labour, LibDems and the Greens, the right by the Conservatives and Reform.

This time our centre held as they were able to cooperate and maximise their share of the vote, whilst that of the vote was split.

Clearly, the toxicity of the hard-right frightened sufficient voters to ensure sanity prevailed.

This was also the case in France where the hastily assembled New Popular Front saw off the hard-right.

Despite this the right continues to grow, driven by inequality, and the old who are scared of change. A new phenomenon is the attraction of hard-right politicians to young male voters, something that we will explore further in coming weeks

Attention now turns to the US elections. What fascinates me here is that the US economy is doing well, but main street doesn’t appear to be seeing it. Again something to explore further.

Lyrically, we welcome Mr Brightside to No.10 with the Killers “Mr Brightside”, to finish we have the Eagles “New Kid in Town.” A word of warning to Sir Kier, everybody might love you now, but don’t disappoint! Enjoy!

 
 
@coldwarsteve
 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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