‘Why does DIY Investor still have a Brexit column?’ The author responds

In other words, is the column still relevant? Yes, and no – writes Philip Gilbert 

 
Brexit was voted for in 2016, we left at the end of 2019, therefore do we  still need a column about it?

The simple answer is ‘Yes’, and the Ed and I will think of a new heading for the section on the website. 

To say Brexit is over is to utterly misunderstand what was behind many peoples motivation to vote ‘leave’. 

It is accepted that C.80% of the population was decided and was virtually equally split between ‘leave’ and ‘remain’. The 20% of floating voters decided the referendum; the question is why did they vote ‘leave’. 

These floating voters we the people that became known as ‘left behind’; not so much economically but by ‘modern politics’.

Modern politics had become more inclusive in its outlook; same sex marriage, equality for race and gender. ‘Leave’ attracted the left behind, and using typical populist tactics gave them scapegoats to blame for their alienation; the EU, immigration, and the ‘establishment’.   
 

To say Brexit is over is to utterly misunderstand what was behind many peoples motivation to vote ‘leave’

 
Added to this are bare-faced lies such as ‘an extra £350m a week to second on the NHS’ which, to the left behind, was music to the ears. Leave the EU and all problems disappear. Its magic! 

The disaffection of those left behind goes far deeper than this. It began with Thatcherism, when their town and cities became victims of the deindustrialisation caused by her free-market economics, which gave rise to the ‘north-south’ divide. The GFC of 2008, and the following austerity policy of the Cameron / Osborne years only exacerbated the situation. As this column has written before our recovery post-2008 was ‘L’ shaped. 

The causes of what shaped Brexit are still relevant today, as are its political implications.    

In the initial article, ‘Brexit: ‘The never ending story’, published on 30th March 2016, I posed several questions, including: 

What would be the impact  on the political parties? As we saw with the Conservatives, David Cameron swiftly resigned to be followed by Theresa May, a premiership that had ‘interim’ written all over it. The European Reform Group (‘the ERG’) flexed its muscles and bought in the arch populist Boris Johnson. 

I also asked, ‘how would this impact on future elections and government’? Well, the elephant in the room was Nigel Farage, who, as the leader of UKIP, was a prime mover behind the Brexit referendum. UKIP osmosed into the Brexit party, before becoming Reform UK.

Farage’s decision to stand candidates down in what are now known are ‘the red wall’ allowed the Tory’s to win 68 traditional Labour seats, giving Johnson a large majority. 

Continuing with the Tory party, I asked, would ‘we see the party splinter into two factions leading to the creation of a new party, or defections to UKIP or the Liberal Democrats’? There was a minor split in the Tory party when Johnson effectively ‘sacked’ anyone who disagreed with him. However, I can foresee a situation where, in the next 18-months, there is a split along the lines I envisaged – more about that in the next article. 

Another question was’ what will happen to the Union’? Scotland wishes to stay in the EU, and is pushing for a second devolution.  

The final word goes to another commentator, who today wrote:’ UK Politics will remain in thrall to Brexit (the dark, malign canker festering at the heart of the UK), which will continue to dominate the agenda and eat away the nation’s trade and export position – to engage with Europe to find a mutually beneficial compromise is utterly unacceptable to the ERG Taliban.’ 

Brexit, is, with the possible exception of the creation of the welfare state, the most important political even post WW2. It hangs over UK life like the Sword of Damocles. 

Brexit and the EU has been eating away at the heart of the Tory party ever since we joined. Is it still relevant? Unfortunately, yes. 
 

‘From station to station 

Back to Düsseldorf City 

Meet Iggy Pop and David Bowie’

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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